玻璃月报：玻璃阶段性回暖，但持续性存疑-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the glass market achieved a phased recovery supported by sentiment and rigid demand, with the price center shifting upwards. However, considering factors such as unresolved supply pressure, high mid - stream social inventory, and tight downstream capital, the price lacks the impetus for continuous growth, and the subsequent trend is expected to be mainly volatile consolidation [7][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In September, the price of the glass main contract SA2601 ranged from 1,118 to 1,282 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon close on September 30, 2025, the glass futures main contract FG2601 rose 37 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 3.15%, closing at 1,210 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Key Data Trends - In September, the national average price of the float glass market was 1,173 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.1%. The average daily output was 160,300 tons, an increase of 760 tons from the previous period, a rise of 0.48%. The average capacity utilization rate was 80.16%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points from the previous period [6]. - In September, the inventory of float glass sample enterprises showed a continuous downward trend. By the end of the month, the total inventory was 59.3548 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2116 million heavy boxes, a decline of 5.13%; a year - on - year decrease of 13.5236 million heavy boxes, a decline of 18.56% [6]. 3.3 Spot Price Trends - In September, the float glass market was weak first and then strong. The national average price of the float glass market was 1,173 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.1%. Different regions had different price trends, with some showing small declines and some showing increases [8]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Analysis - In September, the profits of float glass and upstream soda ash both declined, with a larger decline in soda ash profits, mainly due to the fall in soda ash spot prices and the rise in coal prices, leading to a decrease in industry profits [13]. - In September, the prices of float glass with different fuels generally rose, but the prices of coal and petroleum coke in fuels also increased significantly, resulting in an increase in the cost and a decrease in the profit of glass using coal - gas and petroleum coke as fuels. The price of pipeline natural gas was relatively stable, and the loss of natural - gas glass decreased [14]. 3.5 Supply - Side Situation - In September, although the monthly output of float glass decreased, the average daily output increased, and the capacity utilization rate increased. The average daily output was 160,300 tons, an increase of 760 tons from the previous period, a rise of 0.48%. The average capacity utilization rate was 80.16%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points from the previous period [18]. - In September, the overhaul loss of float glass was 1.1906 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 63,300 tons, a decline of 5.05%, and a year - on - year increase of 107,800 tons, an increase of 9.95%. From January to September, the cumulative overhaul loss was 11.601 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9992 million tons, an increase of 34.87% [23]. 3.6 Demand - Side Situation - In September, the supply - demand balance showed a pattern of supply less than demand, with a negative supply - demand difference, providing relatively strong support for the market. The demand increment within the month was general, mainly manifested as rigid demand procurement by downstream customers and procurement and stockpiling by spot - futures traders and dealers driven by market sentiment [26]. 3.7 Inventory - Side Situation - In September, the inventory of float glass sample enterprises showed a continuous downward trend. By the end of the month, the total inventory was 59.3548 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2116 million heavy boxes, a decline of 5.13%; a year - on - year decrease of 13.5236 million heavy boxes, a decline of 18.56% [29]. 3.8 Import - Export Data - In August, the import volume of float glass was 23,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,400 tons, a decline of 9.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 8,900 tons, an increase of 60.58%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 161,100 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 8.59% [35]. - In August, the export volume of float glass was 110,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons, an increase of 14.83%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,400 tons, an increase of 119.65%. From January to August, the cumulative export volume was 655,800 tons, an increase of 359,100 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 120.99% [37]. 3.9 Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - In September, the float glass market showed an operating characteristic of "first suppressing then rising, and intensifying supply - demand game". The market was relatively dull in the first half - month and became more active in the second half - month [41]. - In terms of supply - demand structure, the supply side has potential pressure, the demand side has limited growth, and the cost side has significant differences in profit among different processes [41]. - The follow - up price trend is expected to be mainly volatile consolidation [42]. - Operation suggestions: For single - side trading, consider lightly laying out long positions at low prices, but be aware of the supply pressure and high inventory limiting the upside space; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, consider buying put options to hedge the risk of price corrections [43].