Market Performance - During the National Day holiday (September 29 to October 6), the MSCI Global Index rose by 1.96%, with the Nikkei 225 leading at a significant increase of 5.7% due to the election of a pro-active fiscal policy advocate[2] - The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 indices increased by 1.0%, 2.0%, 1.5%, and 2.1% respectively during the same period[2] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index saw increases of 3.2% and 5.7% respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment[2] Economic Indicators - In September, the ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000[7] - The unemployment rate remained low, with August job vacancies slightly higher at 7,227 thousand, indicating a still sluggish hiring environment[7] - The ISM and Markit service sector PMIs both declined, while the ISM manufacturing PMI improved slightly, indicating mixed economic signals[7] Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, with approximately 40% of federal employees facing mandatory unpaid leave, while 60% of essential workers continued operations[11] - Historical data shows that during previous government shutdowns, the S&P 500 index averaged a gain of 1.0%, with only three instances of slight declines[9] - The market anticipates a 94.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, reflecting stable expectations despite the shutdown[11] Commodity and Currency Movements - The COMEX gold price increased by 5.13%, while ICE Brent crude oil prices fell by 4.80% due to OPEC's continued production increases[2] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.09% to 98.10, indicating a slight weakening of the dollar against other currencies[20] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Focus on three main investment themes: technology growth sectors (AI, internet, semiconductors), industries with improving economic conditions (new energy, building materials), and new consumption areas benefiting from domestic policy support[2]
美国政府“停摆”，资产影响暂时有限
Ping An Securities·2025-10-09 06:10