玻璃十月报：需求成色一般震荡偏强看待-20251009

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for glass futures. The main reasons include the weak support from the real - estate rush - to - build demand in October, the existence of positive expectations such as domestic macro news and environmental protection policies, and the technical indication of stronger bullish and weaker bearish forces. It is expected that the glass 2601 contract will face a pressure range of 1280 - 1300 and is likely to adjust in the near term but still be viewed optimistically. [2][98] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Spot Price: As of September 30, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,230 yuan/ton (+70) in North China, 1,220 yuan/ton (+70) in Central China, and 1,320 yuan/ton (+90) in East China. [13] - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,210 yuan/ton, up 27 for the week. [13] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 20 yuan/ton (+47). The 01 - 05 spread was - 116 yuan/ton (+13). [18] - Soda - Glass Spread: As of September 30, the soda futures price was 1,255, the glass futures price was 1,210, and the spread between them was 45 yuan/ton (-45). [14] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern 2.1 Profit - Gas - Made Process: Cost was 1,577 yuan/ton (-1), and gross profit was - 257 yuan/ton (+91). - Coal - Gas - Made Process: Cost was 1,172 yuan/ton (-17), and gross profit was 58 yuan/ton (+87). - Petroleum Coke - Made Process: Cost was 1,091 yuan/ton (-1), and gross profit was 129 yuan/ton (+71). [23] 2.2 Supply - The pre - holiday daily melting volume of glass was 159,455 tons/day (0), with 225 production lines in operation. [25] 2.3 Inventory - As of September 30, the inventory of 80 national glass sample manufacturers was 5,935.5 ten - thousand weight boxes (-155.3). Inventories in different regions showed various changes, with some decreasing and some increasing. [29][37] 2.4 Deep - Processing - On September 29, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 87% (+6%). On September 30, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.1% (-1%). In mid - September, the order - available days for glass deep - processing were 10.5 days (+0.1). [38] 2.5 Demand (Automobile) - In August, China's automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 224,000 and a year - on - year increase of 323,000. Sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 264,000 and a year - on - year increase of 404,000. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.101 million, with a penetration rate of 55.2%. [49] 2.6 Demand (Real Estate) - In August, China's real - estate completion area was 26.5913 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21%; new construction was 45.9487 million square meters (-20%); construction in progress was 43.7767 million square meters (-29%); and commercial housing sales were 57.4415 million square meters (-11%). From September 13 - 19, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.54 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 2%. In August, real - estate development investment was 672.942 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20%. [57] 2.7 Import and Export - As of August, China's float glass imports were 473,600 weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 61%), and exports were 2.21 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 120%). [59] 2.8 Cost End - Soda (Futures) - Last Friday, the soda 2601 contract closed at 1,255 yuan/ton (-18). The basis of soda in Central China for the 01 contract was 45 yuan/ton (+18). [69] 2.9 Cost End - Soda (Profit) - As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - alkali method for soda was 1,323 yuan/ton (+3), with a gross profit of - 37 yuan/ton (0); the cost of the co - production method was 1,767 yuan/ton (+28), with a gross profit of - 78 yuan/ton (-7). [71][73] 2.10 Cost End - Soda (Inventory) - Last week, domestic soda production was 776,900 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,200), including 430,100 tons of heavy soda (a month - on - month increase of 12,400) and 346,800 tons of light soda (a month - on - month increase of 18,800). The loss was 94,700 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 31,500). As of September 30, the national in - factory soda inventory was 1.5999 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 95,800). [81][87] 2.11 Cost End - Soda (Apparent Consumption) - Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda was 513,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,700; the apparent demand for light soda was 367,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,700. The soda production - sales rate was 113.4%, a week - on - week increase of 7.78%. In August, the soda inventory days of sample float glass factories were 23.6 days. [94][95] 3. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is to buy on dips. The main reasons include the pre - holiday glass futures price trend, stable supply, decreasing inventory, profit changes, demand characteristics, and the expected trend of soda. The glass 2601 contract is expected to adjust in the near term but still be viewed optimistically, with support at 1190 - 1200. [2][98]