供需维持偏松格局，盘面维持低位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the main contract of live pig futures showed a volatile downward trend and declined significantly overall. The current supply - side pressure in the live pig market remains unabated, and it may enter a "double - increase in supply and demand" pattern later. Although consumption is gradually boosted, it is difficult to offset the increase on the supply side, so the current supply - demand pattern of live pigs in the market is still loose. It is expected that the oversupply situation in the live pig market in October will be difficult to fundamentally improve, and pig prices may still be under pressure. The future live pig prices are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations. Currently, the valuation of live pig contracts is not high, and there is cost support below. There is an expectation of a rebound in the future, but the space is relatively limited, and the market may maintain low - level fluctuations [6][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price Analysis - Futures Price: In September 2025, the price of the main contract of live pig futures ranged between 12,220 - 13,710 yuan/ton. Overall, it showed a volatile downward trend and declined significantly in the month. As of the close on September 30, 2025, the main contract LH2511 fell by 1,200 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.85%, and closed at 12,355 yuan/ton [12]. - Spot Price: As of September 25, 2025, the national average live pig price was 13.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/kg from the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current national average live pig price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. As of September 26, 2025, the average price of二元sows was 32.50 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of September 25, 2025, the average price of piglets was 29.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.61 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of September 29, 2025, the prices of 20 - kg外三元piglets in Baoding, Hebei, Linyi, Shandong, and Kaifeng, Henan were 21.83 yuan/kg, 21.71 yuan/kg, and 21.64 yuan/kg respectively, all showing a significant decline from the previous month [16][20][24]. Supply - Demand Balance Situation - Global Live Pig Supply - Demand Balance: According to the USDA report, in 2024, the global live pig supply - demand gap was 36,816 thousand heads, an increase of 13,929 thousand heads year - on - year. The global pork supply - demand gap was 1,350 thousand tons, an increase of 505 thousand tons year - on - year [31]. - China's Live Pig Supply - Demand Balance: According to the USDA report, in 2024, China's live pig supply - demand gap was 2,410 thousand heads, an increase of 11,781 thousand heads year - on - year. China's pork supply - demand gap was - 1,209 thousand tons, an increase of 592 thousand tons year - on - year [38]. Supply - Side Situation - Live Pig Inventory Year - on - Year: As of June 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. Seasonally, the live pig inventory is at a relatively low level in history [44]. - Reproductive Sow Inventory: As of August 2025, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.38 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 heads, a decline of 0.1%; a year - on - year increase of 20,000 heads, an increase of 0.05%. Seasonally, the reproductive sow inventory is at a relatively low level in history [50]. - Live Pig Slaughter: In the second quarter of 2025, the national cumulative live pig slaughter was 366.19 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.24 million heads, an increase of 0.62%. Seasonally, the cumulative live pig slaughter is at a relatively high level in the past five years [52]. - Pork Output: As of June 2025, the national cumulative pork output was 30.2 million tons; a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons, an increase of 1.31%. Seasonally, the national pork output in the second quarter of 2025 is at a relatively high level in the past five years [62]. - China's Pork Import Volume: In August 2025, China's monthly pork import was 80,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. Seasonally, the monthly import volume is at a relatively low level in the past five years [69]. Demand - Side Situation - Slaughter Volume of Designated Live Pig Slaughtering Enterprises in China: In July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises in China was 31.66 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.6 million heads, an increase of 5.32%. Seasonally, the monthly slaughter volume is at a high level in the past five years [76]. - Pork and Main Meat Output: As of June 30, 2025, the national cumulative output of main meats was 48.43 million tons, of which the cumulative pork output was 30.2 million tons, accounting for 62.36% [80]. Feed Supply - Demand Analysis - As of September 25, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2.48 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous month; as of September 25, 2025, the average spot price of soybean meal was 3.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of August 2025, the feed output was 29.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Seasonally, the feed output is at a high level in the past five years [83][89]. Breeding Benefit Analysis - Profit from Purchasing Piglets for Breeding: As of September 26, 2025, the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was - 236.57 yuan/head. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in history [95]. - Profit from Self - Breeding and Self - Raising Live Pigs: As of September 26, 2025, the profit from self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was - 74.11 yuan/head. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in history [100]. - Profit from Broiler Chicken Breeding: As of September 26, 2025, the profit from broiler chicken breeding was - 2.22 yuan/bird. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in history [106]. Pig - Grain Ratio As of September 26, 2025, the pig - grain ratio in China was 5.44. According to the standards of the "Plan for Improving the Government's Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism and Ensuring Stable Supply and Price of the Pork Market", since the pig - grain ratio has been between 5:1 and 6:1 for nearly two consecutive months, the current live pig price is in the second - level early - warning range of excessive decline, and the state may start purchasing and storing as the situation requires [111]. Recent Policies and Meetings in the Live Pig Industry - Symposium on High - Quality Development of the Live Pig Industry: On July 23, 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the live pig industry in Beijing. The meeting emphasized high - quality industry development and put forward measures such as appropriately reducing reproductive sows, strictly controlling new production capacity, controlling body weight, and reducing secondary fattening. Affected by this, on July 23, 2025, the main domestic live pig futures contract 2509 once soared to 15,150 yuan/ton, hitting a new high for the year [112]. - Expanded Meeting of the Executive Office of the Pig Industry Branch of the China Animal Husbandry Association: On August 13, 2025, the Animal Husbandry Association held an expanded meeting of the executive office of the pig industry branch. The meeting conveyed the spirit of the "Symposium on High - Quality Development of the Live Pig Industry" and put forward goals such as reducing production, reducing weight, and stabilizing prices. After the meeting, leading enterprises in the industry actively responded to the production capacity regulation policy and stated that they would reduce the inventory of reproductive sows [113][114]. - Symposium on Live Pig Production Capacity Regulation Enterprises: On September 16, 2025, the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium on live pig production capacity regulation enterprises in Beijing. The meeting aimed to regulate the live pig slaughter supply for next year, involving content such as controlling the production capacity of reproductive sows, restricting "secondary fattening", and reducing the weight of live pig slaughter [115]. Fundamental Analysis - The national average live pig price in September 2025 decreased slightly from the previous month, the price of二元sows was basically the same as the previous month, and the price of piglets decreased significantly from the previous month. The supply pressure will remain high in the future. The actual speed of production capacity reduction is obviously lagging and lacks sustainability. The reproductive sow inventory is still close to the upper limit of the green range of 41 million heads, and the overall supply remains sufficient. The frozen - product inventory maintains a low - level. The terminal consumption is expected to improve. The breeding profit in September 2025 showed a continuous downward trend, and the live pig breeding has fully entered the loss area [116][118][119]. 后市 Outlook The main contract of live pig futures showed a volatile downward trend in September 2025 and declined significantly overall. The current supply - side pressure in the live pig market remains unabated, and it may enter a "double - increase in supply and demand" pattern later. It is expected that the oversupply situation in the live pig market in October will be difficult to fundamentally improve, and pig prices may still be under pressure. The future live pig prices are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations. In the short term, factors such as the seasonal consumption peak season and policy regulation may drive a phased rebound in pig prices, but the rebound space is relatively limited under supply pressure. In the long term, as the process of production capacity optimization progresses, the market supply - demand relationship will gradually improve. Currently, the overall valuation of live pig futures contracts is not high, and there is cost support below. There is an expectation of a rebound in the future, but the space is relatively limited, and the market may maintain low - level fluctuations. Future attention should be paid to changes in terminal consumption, weight reduction of live pigs, changes in the inventory of reproductive sows, live pig slaughter, and secondary fattening [120][121]. Operation Strategy It is expected that the main live pig contract may maintain low - level fluctuations in October. The operation suggestions are: for unilateral trading, consider trying to go long at low prices; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, temporarily wait and see [122][123].