Report Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [5] Core Viewpoints - In September, the rebar 2601 contract fell 3.24%. The social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 390,000 tons, or 4.1%, compared with the previous period in late September, and increased by 1.54 million tons, or 20.6%, compared with the same period last year. The EU announced steel import restrictions on October 7, planning to significantly cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemption and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%. During the National Day holiday, the spot prices were generally stable. In the short term, the resumption enthusiasm of EAF steel mills has increased, and the supply remains at a relatively high level. The market accumulated inventory during the National Day holiday. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in October. [4][5] - It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 3,000 yuan/ton for single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and sell deep out - of - the - money put options opportunistically at low prices. [5] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - Futures Price: The daily K - line chart of the main rebar futures contract is presented, but no specific price data is provided. [6] - Spot Price: As of September 30, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,200 yuan/ton, also down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [11][13] - Basis and Spread: No specific content about basis and spread analysis is provided, only the data source is mentioned. [14] Important Market Information - On October 3, the Ministry of Commerce launched a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's proposed tariff hikes and other trade - investment restrictions. - On October 9, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations for a term of 3 months. - At the end of September, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.3387 trillion US dollars, up 16.5 billion US dollars or 0.5% from the end of August. - China's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. - The global manufacturing PMI in September was 49.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have issued 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in the fourth batch this year to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones. - OPEC and eight major non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to maintain the production increase measure in November, with a daily increase of 137,000 barrels of crude oil. - In the first three quarters, the total land acquisition amount of TOP100 enterprises was 727.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%, and the growth rate was 8.7 percentage points higher than that from January to August. [15][17] Supply - side Situation - No specific content about supply - side situation analysis is provided in the text, only some related data source information is mentioned. [22] Demand - side Situation - As of September 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 49.3, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the current value of the steel circulation industry's purchasing managers' index was 50.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. [26] Fundamental Analysis - The EU announced steel import restrictions on October 7, planning to significantly cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemption and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%. - The impact of steel mill maintenance on construction steel production may increase this week. There are 14 production lines under maintenance and 10 production lines resuming production. The impact on production due to production line maintenance is estimated to be 284,700 tons this week. - In late September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 390,000 tons, or 4.1%, compared with the previous period, and increased by 1.54 million tons, or 20.6%, compared with the same period last year. By region, most regions' inventories decreased, with East China having the largest reduction and North China having the largest decline. By product, except for hot - rolled coils, other product inventories decreased month - on - month, and except for hot - rolled coils, other product inventories increased year - on - year. [38] 后市展望 - Blast furnace steel mills rarely take the initiative to cut or stop production. Due to the decline in scrap steel prices, the profit of EAF steel mills has slightly recovered, and the short - term enthusiasm for resuming production of EAF steel mills has increased, so the supply remains at a relatively high level. The market accumulated inventory during the National Day holiday. After the holiday, the market is expected to fluctuate. [39] Operation Strategy - Single - side: It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 3,000 yuan/ton and try to go long with a light position. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - Options: Opportunistically sell the deep out - of - the - money put option strategy for rb2601. [40]
华龙期货螺纹月报-20251009
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-10-09 06:06