美联储内部存分歧，沪铜或震荡偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The copper price may show a mainly oscillating and slightly stronger trend. The price fluctuation is small, and the arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [4][39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In August, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures was mainly in an upward trend, with a price range of about 79,390 yuan/ton to 83,820 yuan/ton. The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with an operating range of about 9,843 - 10,485 US dollars/ton [7]. 2. Macroeconomic Environment 2.1 Uncertainty in Fed Rate Cuts - There is a continuous debate within the Fed regarding the magnitude and speed of interest rate adjustments. Among 19 Fed officials, 10 think "there will be two or more rate cuts this year", while the other 9 believe there will be one more rate cut or even no more cuts. The probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in October is 10.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.3%. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in December is 2.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 32.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 64.9% [10][11][13]. 2.2 Year - on - Year Growth in Profits of Industrial Enterprises above the National Scale - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Among them, the profit of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 12.7% [16][17]. 3. Supply Side 3.1 Continuous and Rapid Growth in Refined Copper Production - As of August 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. As of September 28, 2025, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 4.02 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was - 40.3 US dollars/kiloton [20]. 3.2 Continuous Narrowing of the Price Difference between Refined and Scrap Copper - As of September 26, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaomao was 82,510 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 75,050 yuan/ton, with a price difference of - 45 yuan/ton [23]. 4. Demand Side - As of August 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2219 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. As of August 2025, the cumulative monthly investment in power grid construction was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14% [27]. 5. Inventory Side - As of September 30, 2025, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 95,034 tons, a decrease of 3,745 tons from the previous week. As of September 29, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 143,900 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 6.72%. The COMEX copper inventory was 323,207 tons, an increase of 923 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 80,700 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous week [32]. 6. Outlook 6.1 Analysis of Price Trend Factors - Factors affecting copper prices include Chinese economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, and inventory. Chinese economic policies and US policies have a high impact, with the key points being the year - on - year growth of industrial enterprise profits and the uncertainty of the Fed's continued rate cuts. Supply factors such as the low level of refined copper processing fees and the year - on - year growth of copper production also have an impact, as do demand factors like the accelerated growth of power grid investment and the growth of copper product output. The continuous and significant accumulation of COMEX copper inventory also affects prices [38]. 6.2 Outlook - Given the macro - environment, supply, demand, and inventory situations, the copper price may show a mainly oscillating and slightly stronger trend. The price fluctuation is small, and the arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [39].