宏观、基本面预期共振，铝价仍然偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the aluminum price remains strong due to the resonance of macro and fundamental expectations. In October, the Fed's interest rate cut and the controllable inflation and economic risks in the US create a favorable macro - environment for the rise of aluminum prices. Although the peak demand season in September was not satisfactory, the demand in October is still promising. The supply growth of electrolytic aluminum slows down, and the aluminum ingot inventory is expected to decline, which will support the aluminum price. [1][78] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The overall trend of the Shanghai aluminum market in September was a rapid rise followed by a rapid decline. At the beginning of the month, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation increased, but China's export data was poor, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase, so the aluminum price fluctuated. Then, due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the obvious reduction of aluminum ingot inventory, the aluminum price rose rapidly and hit a new high this year. After that, due to the poor economic data in China and the increase in inventory, the aluminum price fell back. Before the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the market's inventory - building sentiment was good, but the non - ferrous metal sector declined, and the aluminum price was weak. [6] 2. Macro and Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - Overseas Macro Indicators: It shows data on the Fed's and the European Central Bank's interest - rate decisions, US inflation indicators, freight indices, etc. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025. The European Central Bank has also carried out multiple interest - rate cuts since 2024. [12][14] - Domestic Macro Indicators: It includes data on GDP growth, social financing scale, PMI, exchange rates, inflation, and import - export. China's export growth slowed down in August, and the trade balance was affected by factors such as tariffs. The government has introduced policies to support the economy, such as issuing special bonds. [19][25] 3. Aluminum Raw Material and Production - Domestic Bauxite: The production in the main domestic bauxite - producing areas remains stable. Due to safety supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan, and the rainy season, the mining of bauxite is restricted. After the inventory of domestic ore is gradually consumed, alumina plants generally increase the use of imported ore. With the end of the rainy season in Guinea and the increase in imported ore, the price of domestic ore is expected to decline. [28] - Imported Bauxite: In August 2025, the import volume of bauxite was 18.29 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.81% and a year - on - year increase of 18.24%. Guinea is the largest supplier. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the supply - demand surplus pattern of bauxite will be more prominent, and the price of imported ore is expected to decline. [31] - Alumina: At the end of September, the built - in production capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, and the operating capacity was 98.55 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 350,000 tons. The domestic spot weighted index of alumina decreased. The production of the alumina industry is in a high - stable state, but due to the decrease in the import of Guinean bauxite and the rapid release of production and inventory accumulation, the price of alumina continues to weaken. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in October. [34] - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of September, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 45.232 million tons, and the operating capacity was 44.449 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons. The operating capacity is expected to increase steadily in October, but the new production and restart capacity are very limited. [36][39] - Electrolytic Aluminum Import: In August 2025, the net import of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 1.917 million tons. In the first and middle of September, the loss of electrolytic aluminum imports increased. In October, with the expectation of the relative strength of Shanghai aluminum, the import of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase. [42] - Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit: In September, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 368 yuan/ton to 15,120 yuan/ton, mainly due to the decline in the price of alumina. It is expected that the production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry will remain stable in October. [44] 4. Aluminum Downstream Demand - Automobile: In August, automobile production and sales increased, and the export reached a new high. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicles continued to increase. With the support of special bonds and the arrival of the peak season, and the pre - demand caused by the restart of the new - energy vehicle purchase tax next year, the demand for aluminum in the automobile industry is expected to continue to grow. [52] - Real Estate: From January to August, real estate development investment, construction area, new - start area, and sales area all declined. Although the government has introduced a series of loosening policies, the real - estate market is still weak. [55] - Infrastructure: In August, the issuance of new local bonds decreased, but the issuance progress of new special bonds in the first eight months was faster, which is expected to drive future infrastructure investment to maintain a high growth rate. However, the use of special bonds for debt repayment and land reserve will have a crowding - out effect on infrastructure investment. The investment in the power grid has increased significantly, and the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is still optimistic. [58] - Home Appliances: In August, the production and export of home appliances showed different trends. The export of home appliances showed certain resilience. With the support of special bonds and the increase in the production schedule of three major white - goods in October, the demand for aluminum in the home - appliance industry is expected to increase. [61] - Photovoltaic: In July, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative installed capacity from January to July increased significantly year - on - year. With the release of provincial mechanism electricity prices, the uncertainty of photovoltaic project returns is partially eliminated, and the photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to remain low but may improve month - on - month. [64] - Aluminum Products Export: In August, the net export of domestic aluminum products decreased year - on - year. Due to factors such as the restart of US tariffs and the full release of the US import demand, the export of aluminum products in October may decrease month - on - month. [67] 5. Aluminum Price Outlook - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase steadily, but the growth rate slows down. The demand in October is expected to improve in some fields, and the cost is expected to remain stable. The Fed's interest - rate cut creates a good macro - environment, and the reduction of aluminum ingot inventory in October is expected to support the aluminum price. If the inventory reduction is not effective, it is recommended to take profit at high points at the end of October and in November. [78]