碳酸锂10月报：旺季需求支撑，价格宽幅震荡-20251009

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Monthly Report for October: Peak Season Demand Supports, Prices Fluctuate Widely" [1] - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [3] - Report Institution: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The supply disturbances at the salt lake and mica ends are frequent, and the cost center of lithium carbonate will move up due to issues such as resource tax and mining right transfer fees. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance before the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi is clarified, and South American lithium salt imports may supplement the supply. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is supported, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the mining license progress in Yichun and the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [60]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Review - Early supply disturbances at the salt lake and mica ends and off - season demand drove prices to a phased high. In September, with increased arrivals of lithium carbonate and lithium concentrate and continuous production increase in ore - based lithium extraction, prices fell and then fluctuated. As of September 30, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 71,000 yuan/ton, down 8.5% from the end of last month, and battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 74,000 yuan/ton, down 7.7% [10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Carbonate Lithium Industry Chain Introduction - The supply sources of lithium carbonate include lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, salt lake brine, and recycling lithium extraction. The downstream demand includes new energy vehicles, energy storage, two - wheeled vehicles, and consumer electronics [17]. 2.2 Supply Side - In 2024, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 700,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35%. In September 2025, the production was 95,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%, and the production from January to September was 704,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40%. The production is concentrated in Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Qinghai, and the proportion of salt - lake lithium extraction will gradually increase in the future. Australian mines have expanded production and reduced costs, and the sources of lithium concentrate imports are diversified. From January to August 2025, China imported about 4.866 million tons of lithium concentrate, a year - on - year increase of 27%, and 155,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year increase of 6% [22][24]. 2.3 Demand Side - Positive Materials: Carbonate lithium is used to process positive materials for lithium batteries. In 2024, the annual production of lithium iron phosphate was 2.571 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54%, and the production of ternary materials was 707,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%. In August 2025, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 329,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50%, and the production of ternary materials was 78,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%. It is expected that the production of positive materials in October will increase by 1% month - on - month [31]. - Power Batteries: In 2024, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 34.4% and 35.5% respectively year - on - year. In August 2025, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 55.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. In August, the total production of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 37.3%. The production of lithium iron phosphate batteries is booming, and the production in October is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month [34][38]. - Energy Storage Batteries: The global energy storage market is growing rapidly. In 2024, the global energy storage battery shipments were 340 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 55%, and the shipments of Chinese energy storage lithium batteries were 331 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 60%. In the first half of 2025, the global energy storage lithium battery shipments were 316 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 98% [43]. - Consumer Batteries: In 2024, the global shipments of consumer - type lithium - ion batteries were 124.1 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 9.63%, and the shipments of Chinese consumer - type lithium batteries were about 55 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 12.24%. It is expected that the shipments of Chinese consumer lithium batteries will further increase in 2025 [48]. 2.4 Lithium Battery Industry Chain Profit Situation - With the arrival of the sales peak season, new energy vehicle sales are expected to maintain high growth, driving the growth of battery and material demand. The demand for lithium battery inventory is strong, and production scheduling is expected to continue to rise. The energy storage demand exceeding expectations will accelerate the arrival of the supply - demand inflection point for batteries and materials, and lithium iron phosphate materials may be the first to see supply - demand and price increase inflection points [51]. 2.5 Inventory Structure - In September, the total social inventory dropped to around 137,000 tons, and it is expected that the inventory removal speed will accelerate in October. As of September 26, the factory inventory of lithium carbonate was 26,000 tons, an increase of 1,305 tons from the end of August, the market inventory decreased by 12,000 tons to 64,000 tons, and the inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 10,400 tons to 40,000 tons [56]. 3. Future Outlook for Carbonate Lithium Prices - Supply disturbances at the salt lake and mica ends continue. The cost of lithium carbonate will rise, and the domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance. The short - term price is supported, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the mining license progress in Yichun and the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [60].