港股四季度策略展望：寻找港股新路标

Group 1: Southbound Capital - Southbound capital has significantly flowed into the Hong Kong stock market in 2025, with a cumulative net purchase of 979 billion HKD from January to August, surpassing the total of 807.9 billion HKD for the entire year of 2024 [2][24]. - Despite the increasing transaction share of southbound capital, its net purchases have shown little predictive power for the future movements of the Hang Seng Index, with a negative correlation observed between daily net purchases and index fluctuations [2][24]. - The top 10% of stocks by net purchase amount from southbound capital yielded an annualized return of 12.08%, significantly higher than the average of 2.61% and the bottom 10% group which saw a return of -2.94% [3][29]. Group 2: Industry Rotation - The analysis of industry rotation indicates that the southbound net purchase amount has a poor monotonicity across industries, but after adjusting for transaction amounts, the excess returns for bullish positions significantly improve, with the top three industries showing an annualized return of 11.64% [4][32]. - The retail sector, particularly represented by Alibaba, has been the most favored by southbound capital, with a net purchase scale significantly outperforming other sectors [4][32]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of style factors in guiding industry allocation, with growth and long-term momentum factors showing particularly strong performance in the Hong Kong market [6][65]. Group 3: IPO Trends - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a surge in IPO activity in 2025, with 43 companies listed by June 30, raising a total of 106.71 billion HKD, which is significantly higher than the 88.15 billion HKD raised in 2024 [7][38]. - Notable IPOs include Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and Ningde Times, which raised 11.3 billion HKD and 41 billion HKD respectively, indicating a strong market interest and improved liquidity [7][38]. - The new IPO regulations implemented in August 2025 aim to enhance the attractiveness of the Hong Kong market by reducing public shareholding requirements and shortening the listing review process [7][38]. Group 4: Real Estate Market - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing signs of stabilization following the government's removal of property control measures, which has significantly reduced transaction costs for residential properties [11][12]. - High-frequency data indicates a rebound in private residential price indices since March 2025, suggesting a recovery in market sentiment and price stabilization [12][11]. - The low-interest environment and financial wealth effects are contributing to the improved outlook for the real estate sector, with transaction volumes increasing significantly [11][12].