PTA：供需转弱预期下，PTA偏弱震荡，MEG：供应明显回升预期下，MEG难有起色

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly following the cost in the weak supply - demand situation, and the industry should continue the strategy of hedging on rallies in the fourth - quarter inventory accumulation pattern. MEG is expected to maintain a weak pattern, and the industry should continue the strategy of hedging at high levels [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industry Chain - Market Review: In September, although oil prices rose and cost support was strong, PX downstream demand was sluggish, terminal inventory replenishment was cautious, and the new downstream device commissioning was postponed. The MX - PX spread remained high, and the PX absolute price declined. By September 30, the Asian PX closing price was $808.83/ton CFR China, a decrease of $39.84/ton or 4.69% from August 29 [15][17]. - Maintenance and Restart: In September, Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton unit and two units of Fuhai Chuang totaling 1.6 million tons restarted after maintenance, while Fujia Dahua's 1.4 million - ton unit was under maintenance. The PX operating rate in September was 89.51%, a month - on - month increase of 0.47% [20]. - PX - Naphtha Spread: By September 30, the PX - naphtha spread was $217.1/ton, a decrease of $34.21/ton from August 29. The high PX - MX spread led to high enterprise operating rates, but weak terminal demand and postponed new device commissioning reduced the PX - naphtha spread [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - Market Review: In early September, with increasing crude oil production and weak upstream reality, combined with high PTA supply expectations and limited growth space for polyester demand, PTA prices declined. In the middle of the month, due to the Palestine - Israel conflict and improved Sino - US economic and trade relations, PTA prices recovered intermittently but then fell again. In late September, low processing fees and typhoon - affected device shutdowns in South China, along with weak crude oil, led to a decline in PTA prices. By September 30, the PTA spot price was 4,545 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 55 [24][26]. - Capacity Utilization: In September, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.78%, a month - on - month increase of 2.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.52%. In October, Ineos and Hengli have maintenance plans, and the monthly PTA output may increase significantly, but attention should be paid to whether there will be unexpected production cuts in existing devices [30]. - Processing Fees: In September, the PTA monthly average processing fee was 156.94 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.65%. The reduction in the destocking range and lower - than - expected terminal performance limited the improvement of PTA benefits, even with PX price concessions [33]. - Supply - Demand Balance: In October, with insufficient PTA device maintenance and the restart of previously shut - down devices, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to be in a loose balance [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - Market Review: In September, although the cost side was stable to strong, concerns about future supply - demand inventory accumulation led to a significant decline in MEG prices. Despite the low port inventory and the mid - month inventory reaching a five - year low, the new production affected the futures market, resulting in a pattern of strong basis and weak prices. By September 30, the closing price of Zhangjiagang MEG was 4,275 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,410 yuan/ton [39]. - Capacity Utilization: In September, the domestic MEG capacity utilization rate was about 66.95%, with the non - coal - based MEG capacity utilization rate at about 66.85% and the coal - based MEG capacity utilization rate at about 67.1% [40]. - Port Inventory: As of October 9, the total MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 443,100 tons, an increase of 88,000 tons or 24.8% from September 29. As of October 8, 2025, the expected total arrival volume of domestic MEG in East China was 203,000 tons [45]. - Processing Profits: By September 25, the naphtha - based MEG profit dropped to $129/ton, reaching the lowest level of the year, and the profits of other processes also declined to varying degrees due to weak prices, limited terminal order improvement, and new device commissioning [48]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industry Chain - Capacity Utilization: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% due to the restart of some devices and new device commissioning. In October, after successful destocking before the festival, the polyester monthly load is expected to remain stable, but there is a risk of a decline in the second half of October as autumn and winter orders are delivered [49][51]. - Inventory: Before the festival, aggressive promotions led to low inventory levels, but inventory increased after the festival as downstream textile manufacturers had holidays. The overall inventory of polyester products is currently in a relatively good state [56]. - Cash Flow: With the decline in polymerization costs, polyester product manufacturers offered promotions, compressing local cash flows [59]. - Weaving Industry: As of September 25, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 63.12%, a 0.93% increase from the previous period. The average terminal weaving order days were 15.42 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. Due to the National Day holiday and factors such as tariffs and new order supplements, the overall demand is lower than in previous years [64]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - Cost Side: In September, rising oil prices provided strong cost support, but weak PX downstream demand, cautious terminal inventory replenishment, and postponed new device commissioning led to a decline in the PX absolute price [66]. - Supply Side: In September, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.78%, and the domestic MEG capacity utilization rate was about 66.95% [67]. - Demand Side: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, and the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 63.12%. However, overall demand is lower than in previous years due to various factors [67]. - Inventory: PTA supply - demand was in a tight balance before the festival and is expected to move towards a loose balance after the festival. As of October 9, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 24.8% from September 29 [67].