海内外24家半年报全扫描：2025H2全球铜矿供给更为紧俏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The global copper supply is expected to remain tight in the second half of 2025, with a projected production of 570 million tons from major mining companies, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [2][24] - The average C1 cash cost for major copper companies decreased to $1.72 per pound in the first half of 2025, down 8.7% year-on-year, with most companies experiencing a decline in costs due to increased copper production and strong by-product prices [3][21] - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources is anticipated to create a top five global copper producer, with an annual output exceeding 1.2 million tons [3][36] Summary by Sections Section 1: Supply and Demand - In the first half of 2025, the production of the top 24 copper companies reached 7.41 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20,000 tons, with a growth rate of 2.8% [1][11] - The production guidance for 2025 has been revised downwards to a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, compared to an initial forecast of 2.8% [2][13] Section 2: Cost Analysis - The average C1 cash cost for 15 copper companies was $1.72 per pound in the first half of 2025, with only four companies reporting an increase in costs [3][21] - The decline in costs is attributed to higher copper output and favorable by-product prices, particularly for companies like Minmetals Resources and Antofagasta [25][21] Section 3: Financial Performance - Chinese copper companies showed an increase in net profit margins and free cash flow, while overseas companies experienced declines in these metrics [29][30] - The free cash flow for overseas copper companies dropped by an average of 54%, contrasting with a 432% increase for Chinese companies [29][30] Section 4: Strategic Developments - Freeport-McMoRan is advocating for U.S. policies to boost refined copper production and is exploring copper scrap as a potential source [36] - The Cobre Panama mine is under consideration for a restart in early 2026, with ongoing negotiations between Panama and First Quantum Minerals [36]