印尼铜矿变动节内持续发酵，外盘铜持续吸引资金

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The event of an Indonesian copper mine being declared "force majeure" and suspending the execution of the fourth - quarter supply contract still has an impact. The marginal change in the market turning from supply - demand balance to supply shortage within the year has pushed up global copper prices. However, as the current price remains high, the market's game regarding factors such as the Fed's interest rate cuts has deepened, and short - term market trading still plays a significant role [6] - The copper price may show high - level fluctuations in the range of 82,000 - 84,000 RMB/ton, driven by supply disruptions, improved domestic demand, and the suppression of the US dollar [36][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contracts and Basis: As of September 30, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose significantly to 83,280 yuan/ton, a 1.23% increase from the previous day. The LME copper price also increased to 10,428.5 US dollars/ton, a cumulative increase of 223.5 US dollars from September 24. In terms of spot premiums and discounts, the premium of premium copper increased significantly from 25 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton, and the discounts of flat - water copper and wet - process copper narrowed, indicating a warming sentiment in the spot market and a strengthening of the basis overall [1] - Positions and Transactions: The inventory data showed differentiation. The LME copper inventory increased by 1,220 tons (+4.77%) in a single day, while the SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 500 tons (-0.35%), and the COMEX inventory accumulated slightly. The LME (0 - 3) discount narrowed to - 29.22 US dollars/ton [2] 3.1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: The Las Bambas copper mine in Peru announced the resumption of operations on September 29, but the Chuquicamata smelter under Codelco in Chile suspended production due to an equipment accident. Coupled with the problem of declining copper ore grades in South America, short - term supply disruptions continued. The domestic smelting end maintained a high operating rate, and the processing fee for imported copper concentrates declined slightly [3] - Demand Side: The acceleration of domestic infrastructure project starts drove the demand for copper in the power sector. The air - conditioner production schedule in September increased by 15% year - on - year, but the real - estate completion data remained weak. Overseas, the European manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, suppressing export orders. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate hikes led to a stronger US dollar index, which inhibited overseas speculative buying [4] - Inventory Side: The global visible inventory continued to show differentiation. The LME inventory rebounded to 26,823 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased slightly to 143,400 tons, and the domestic bonded - area inventory remained at a low level [5] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The table shows the data and changes of various indicators such as spot prices, premiums and discounts, futures prices (SHFE and LME), and inventory (LME, SHFE, COMEX) from September 24 to September 30, 2025 [8] 3.3 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][11][14]