Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-09 07:55Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the low - level oscillation pattern. The release of new supply - side production capacity and high existing operating rates exert downward pressure, while the growth of new energy vehicle sales and the rebound of lithium hexafluorophosphate prices on the demand side provide bottom support. The strengthening of the basis reflects a marginal relief of spot pressure, but warehouse receipt pressure still exists. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, attention should be paid to the post - holiday restocking rhythm, the ramping - up speed of new salt - lake production capacity, and the follow - up information of 8 lithium mines in Jiangxi [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes: On September 30, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 72,800 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from the previous trading day. The basis strengthened significantly, rising from - 820 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.86% to 232,000 lots, and the trading volume shrank significantly by 31.82% to 317,000 lots [1]. - Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes: On the supply side, the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable, but the production capacity of leading enterprises was accelerating. Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang and Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project in Zabuye Salt Lake were put into operation, increasing supply - side pressure. On the demand side, the retail end of new energy vehicles remained resilient. From September 1 - 27, 1.039 million new energy vehicles were retailed and 1.154 million were wholesaled. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 4.98% to 63,250 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary materials increased slightly, indicating marginal improvement in cathode material demand. However, the price of iron - lithium battery cells remained flat, showing structural differentiation. Carbonate lithium inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks, with 136,825 physical tons on September 30, and the slow destocking speed restricted the price rebound momentum [2]. - Market Summary: The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the low - level oscillation pattern. The new supply - side production capacity and high existing operating rates suppress prices, while the growth of new energy vehicle sales and the rebound of lithium hexafluorophosphate prices on the demand side provide bottom support. The strengthening of the basis reflects a marginal relief of spot pressure, but warehouse receipt pressure still exists. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, attention should be paid to the post - holiday restocking rhythm, the ramping - up speed of new salt - lake production capacity, and the follow - up information of 8 lithium mines in Jiangxi [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Product | September 30, 2025 | September 29, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lithium carbonate main contract | 72,800 | 73,920 | - 1,120 | - 1.52% | yuan/ton | | Basis | 300 | - 820 | 1,120 | 136.59% | yuan/ton | | Main contract open interest | 231,964 | 251,749 | - 19,785 | - 7.86% | lots | | Main contract trading volume | 317,458 | 465,591 | - 148,133 | - 31.82% | lots | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate market price | 73,100 | 73,100 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Spodumene concentrate market price | 6,390 | 6,390 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Lepidolite concentrate market price | 3,400 | 3,400 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Lithium hexafluorophosphate | 63,250 | 60,250 | 3,000 | 4.98% | yuan/ton | | Power ternary material | 122,350 | 121,750 | 600 | 0.49% | yuan/ton | | Power lithium iron phosphate | 33,640 | 33,640 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Product | September 26, 2025 | September 19, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate | 71.31% | 71.31% | 0.00% | 0.00% | % | | Lithium carbonate inventory | 136,825 | 137,531 | - 706 | - 0.51% | physical tons | | 523 cylindrical ternary battery cell | 4.42 | 4.42 | 0.00 | 0.00% | yuan/piece | | 523 square ternary battery cell | 0.40 | - | 0.00 | 0.51% | yuan/Wh | | 523 soft - pack ternary battery cell | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00% | yuan/Wh | | Square lithium iron phosphate battery cell | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00% | yuan/Wh | | Cobalt - acid lithium battery cell | 6.65 | 6.35 | 0.30 | 4.72% | yuan/Ah | [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotations: On September 30, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 72,800 - 74,300 yuan/ton, with an average of 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 70,700 - 71,900 yuan/ton, with an average of 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate futures price continued to oscillate, with the main contract oscillating between 72,700 - 74,000 yuan/ton. The downstream material factories' National Day stockpiling was basically completed, and market transactions became significantly lighter. In terms of supply, lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounted for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lepidolite decreased to 15%. Overall, the September market showed simultaneous growth in supply and demand, but the demand growth rate was faster, resulting in a temporary supply shortage [6]. - Downstream Consumption: According to the Passenger Car Association data, from September 1 - 27, the retail volume of the national passenger - vehicle new energy market was 1.039 million, a 9% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in September last year and a 17% increase compared to the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of national passenger - vehicle new energy was 58.5%, and the cumulative retail volume this year was 8.609 million, a 24% year - on - year increase. From September 1 - 27, the wholesale volume of national passenger - vehicle manufacturers' new energy was 1.154 million, a 12% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in September last year and a 21% increase compared to the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of national passenger - vehicle manufacturers' new energy was 54.9%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 10.098 million, a 31% year - on - year increase [7]. - Industry News: - On September 28, news showed that on September 20, EVE Energy's Hungary base reached a new milestone with the official entry of electromechanical equipment, marking the key stage of the project's civil engineering. The base is expected to supply large cylindrical batteries to BMW Group's Debrecen plant after completion in 2026, creating about 1,000 jobs [8][9]. - On September 26, news from "Zhangjiagang Release" showed that on September 25, Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, Jiangsu, with a total investment of about 1.8 billion yuan, was completed and put into operation. Tianqi Lithium is a globally leading new - energy materials enterprise focusing on lithium, with 5 production bases globally, and its Zhangjiagang base has an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate [9]. - On September 26, Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project at the Zabuye Salt Lake, which had been in the works for four years, was officially put into operation. The project passed a 120 - hour functional assessment from September 20 - 24, 2025. The project's production capacity release is expected to significantly improve China's lithium - resource self - sufficiency rate. The company has the exclusive mining right for the Zabuye Salt Lake, which is one of the world's three largest and Asia's largest lithium - rich salt lakes [9][10]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those on the main lithium carbonate futures and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and battery cell selling prices [11][14][15].