海外经济政策跟踪：假期期间：海外大事件与全球大类资产

Group 1: Major Events - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown for the first time in seven years due to a failure to pass a temporary funding bill, with a 75% probability of lasting over 15 days according to Polymarket predictions[3] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi Nobuo, is expected to continue the "Abenomics" policy, focusing on aggressive fiscal and monetary measures to stimulate the economy[10] - France's new Prime Minister, Le Cornu, resigned after only 26 days in office, highlighting significant fiscal risks with a projected 2024 budget deficit being the highest in the Eurozone at 113% of GDP[13] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, the largest drop since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000 jobs[8] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.1%, indicating continued contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0%, the lowest since 2010[9] - The Eurozone's CPI rose to 2.2% in September, while core CPI remained stable at 2.3%[35] Group 3: Market Performance - During the holiday period from September 30 to October 7, 2025, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 6.72%, emerging market stocks increased by 2.17%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.39%[15] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with COMEX copper up 4.38% and Brent crude oil futures down 1.98%[15] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 2 basis points to 4.14% during the same period[15]