油脂市场点评：印尼生柴政策预期利好，棕油领涨油脂市场

Report Overview - Report Title: "Grease Market Review: Positive Expectations from Indonesia's Biodiesel Policy, Palm Oil Leads the Grease Market" [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market outlook for palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil is oscillating upward. Key positive factors include favorable expectations from Indonesia's biodiesel policy, increased palm oil consumption for biodiesel in Indonesia, palm oil entering the production - reduction season, continuous reduction of domestic rapeseed oil inventory, and a high probability of reduced US soybean yield [5] 3. Summary by Directory Price Performance - Today, palm oil led the domestic grease market. The closing price change rate of palm oil's 01 contract was 4.13%, that of soybean oil's 01 contract was 2.69%, and that of rapeseed oil's 01 contract was 2.01% [2] Fundamental Analysis - Market Analysis - Palm oil led the grease market today due to the recent rebound of US soybeans and US soybean oil, Indonesia's plan to enforce the B85 biodiesel policy in 2026, and the expected decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September [4] - Macroeconomic environment: The US federal government is in a "shutdown" state, and geopolitical and economic uncertainties are increasing. The US dollar has been strengthening recently, and crude oil prices are fluctuating [4] - US soybeans: Affected by the US government shutdown, recent US soybean data updates have been suspended. Considering the US soybean's good - to - excellent rate and weather conditions this year, there is a high probability of a decline in US soybean yield and production in the later period. The market hopes for a package of assistance plans for farmers from the US government and demand improvement. However, China has not imported US soybeans yet, and Sino - US trade relations are still uncertain, so US soybean export demand faces great uncertainty. The expected seasonal decline in domestic imported soybeans may lead to a peak - to - decline in domestic soybean oil inventory [4] - Palm oil: MP0A and SPPOMA data show that Malaysia's palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% and 2.42% month - on - month respectively. ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports in September increased by 9.6% and 7.3% month - on - month respectively. The market expects a slight decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September. Indonesia's biodiesel demand for palm oil is expected to increase. GAKPI data shows that from January to July 2025, Indonesia's domestic biodiesel consumption of palm oil was 7.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 793,000 tons. If Indonesia enforces the B85 biodiesel policy in 2026, the domestic biodiesel consumption of palm oil will reach 20.1 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of about 29% [4] - Rapeseed oil: Affected by China's restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports and the fact that Russian rapeseed has not been widely available on the market, the expected volume of domestic rapeseed imports is low, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decline [4]