Huachuang Securities·2025-10-09 09:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for BYD with a target price of 130.6 CNY and 142.7 HKD [1] Core Views - The report highlights a moderate month-on-month sales growth in September 2025, with expectations for an upward trend in Q4 [1] - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 925.5 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [2] - The report emphasizes the company's strong competitive position and potential for global market share expansion, driven by product innovation and overseas market development [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for BYD are as follows: - 2024: 777.1 billion CNY - 2025: 925.5 billion CNY - 2026: 1,082.2 billion CNY - 2027: 1,237.6 billion CNY - Year-on-year revenue growth rates are expected to be 29.0% for 2024, 19.1% for 2025, 16.9% for 2026, and 14.4% for 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2024: 40.3 billion CNY - 2025: 42.6 billion CNY - 2026: 51.4 billion CNY - 2027: 63.2 billion CNY - The net profit growth rates are projected at 34.0% for 2024, 5.8% for 2025, 20.7% for 2026, and 23.0% for 2027 [2] Sales Performance - In September 2025, BYD's total new energy vehicle sales reached 396,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6% but a month-on-month increase of 6% [6] - The breakdown of sales includes: - BEV (Battery Electric Vehicles): 205,000 units, year-on-year increase of 24% - PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles): 188,000 units, year-on-year decrease of 26% - Exports: 71,000 units, year-on-year increase of 134% [6] Market Dynamics - The report notes that multiple regions have suspended vehicle replacement subsidies, which may lead to a significant rush for purchases before the end of the year [6] - The automotive industry is transitioning from rapid growth to high-quality development, which is expected to enhance profitability for companies like BYD [6]