国庆假期结束，外盘变动?何？

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in the external market during the 2025 National Day holiday, including the fluctuations of various financial and commodity indices, as well as the supply - demand situation of the international and domestic agricultural and energy industries, and international and domestic macro - economic news. 3. Summary by Related Contents External Market Fluctuations during National Day - The US dollar index rose from 97.82 to 98.84, with a 1.04% increase; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.69% [1]. - Among agricultural products, BMD Malaysian palm oil rose 4.48%, CBOT US soybeans rose 2.90%, and ICE US cotton fell 1.19% [1]. - In the energy sector, NYMEX US fuel oil fell 1.36%, NYMEX US crude oil fell 0.21%, and ICE Brent fell 0.11% [1]. - Among non - ferrous metals, COMEX gold rose 4.45%, COMEX silver rose 3.42%, and LME copper rose 3.93% [1]. International Supply - Demand Situation - Palm Oil: Malaysia's September palm oil inventory is expected to decline by 2.5% compared to August, production is expected to decline by 3.3%, and exports are expected to increase by 7.7%. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to decline by 1%, and Malaysia's is expected to decline by 1%. Global palm oil imports are expected to increase by 4.6% [2][3]. - Soybeans: S&P Global lowered the US soybean yield forecast. As of September 1, 2025, the US old - crop soybean inventory was 3.16 billion bushels. Brazilian soybean planting progress is faster than in previous years, and the 2025/26 production is expected to increase. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4850 tons, and corn production is expected to be 5800 tons [4][5][7]. - Other Crops: Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 2002.8 tons, and exports are expected to be 700 tons. Ukraine has approved new export documents for tax - exempt rapeseed and soybean exports [13][14]. Domestic Supply - Demand Situation - On September 30, the total trading volume of domestic edible oils decreased by 71% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill operating rate dropped by 6.41%. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [16]. International Macro - news - The US ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, the Challenger job - cuts in September were 54,064, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50. The US government shutdown continued, and the release of some economic data was postponed [18][19]. - OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index was - 5.4 [19]. Domestic Macro - news - On September 30, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the renminbi appreciated). The central bank conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan. On October 9, the central bank will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [22]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point [22].