铜领涨有色

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: During the National Day holiday, LME copper rose to $10,800, hitting a new high this year with a holiday increase of about 3%. On the first trading day after the holiday, SHFE copper opened and closed higher, with the open interest continuously rising. The strong upward movement was mainly due to three factors: supply shortage (dual squeeze from the mine and smelting ends), macro and financial attributes (interest - rate cut expectations and increased capital attention), and demand resilience (traditional peak season and long - term trends). In the short term, copper prices broke through and moved up, with strong upward momentum. Technically, attention should be paid to the high - point pressure in May 2024 [5]. - Aluminum: During the National Day holiday, LME aluminum rose by about 3%. On the first trading day after the holiday, SHFE aluminum opened and closed higher, breaking through the 21,000 - yuan mark, with the open interest continuously rising. The rise in aluminum prices was largely affected by the general rise of the non - ferrous metal sector, driven by the sharp increase in copper prices. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 47,000 tons during the National Day holiday, and downstream enterprises showed strong wait - and - see sentiment after the holiday. Technically, attention should be paid to the high - point pressure in mid - September [6]. - Nickel: During the National Day holiday, LME nickel rose by about 1.2%. On the first trading day after the holiday, SHFE nickel continued to increase positions and move up, with the main contract price breaking through the 124,000 - yuan mark. The rise in nickel prices was largely affected by the general rise of the non - ferrous metal sector, driven by the sharp increase in copper prices. At the industrial level, the long - term oversupply of nickel elements continued to suppress nickel prices, but in the short term, the slowdown of nickel ore inventory accumulation at ports and the depletion of SHFE nickel inventory provided support for nickel prices. Continuous attention should be paid to the technical support at the 121,000 - yuan mark [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that copper prices are resetting into a new range, with a lower limit of $10,000 per ton and an upper limit of $11,000 per ton. Supply structural constraints, strategic demand (such as power grids, AI, and national defense), and possible inventory behavior support the bottom, but high prices may trigger the entry of scrap copper into the market and aluminum substitution, thus limiting the upside. Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $10,500 per ton and maintained the 2027 forecast at $10,750 per ton. Citi's forecast for copper prices is more aggressive, expecting copper prices to soar to $11,000 per ton within 0 - 3 months and average $12,000 per ton in the second quarter of 2026. On October 9, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 167,900 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from September 29 [9]. - Aluminum: On October 9, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 634,000 tons, an increase of 47,000 tons from September 29 [10]. - Nickel: The mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market is the SHFE nickel 2511 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel is + 2,400 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,240 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel is + 550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,390 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel is + 2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,390 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans is + 2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,390 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - Copper: The report provides charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded - area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. - Nickel: Charts cover nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, and nickel ore port inventory [37][41][43].