沪锡期货日报-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current Shanghai tin market is in a situation where macro factors are mixed. The long - term logic of tight supply and demand remains unchanged, but in the short term, due to weak demand before the National Day holiday, profit - taking by funds, and risk - aversion sentiment from trade frictions, the upside potential of prices is limited [11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Price - The total trading volume of 12 Shanghai tin futures contracts is 84,373 lots, and the total open interest of Shanghai tin contracts is 52,516 lots. Among them, the open interest of the Shanghai tin contract 2511 is 46,590 lots [6][7] - The closing price of the Shanghai tin 2511 contract today is 272,410 yuan/ton, the mainstream market quotation on the day is 271,400 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 1,010 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Influencing Factors - Supply side: The long - term logic of tight global tin ore supply remains unchanged, but in the short term, the tin inventory on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has slightly accumulated. On September 26, the inventory increased by 35 tons to 2,775 tons compared with the previous day. The inventory change has put some pressure on the spot price and weakened the premium power on the spot side [10] - Demand side: As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream enterprises' stockpiling is coming to an end. The demand in traditional industries such as tin - plated sheets is approaching saturation, and the "new quality requirements" driven by AI and new energy have not yet formed short - term upward - pulling power. The light trading in the spot market has made it difficult for the spot price to rise and keep up with the fluctuating futures price [10]