苹果产业风险管理日报-20251009

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the apple bag - removing and harvesting period, and the focus is on the high - quality fruit rate. Continuous rainy weather from late September to mid - October has made it difficult for apples to remove bags and color [3]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas, expected yield reduction, and poor quality of apples. Bearish factors include less - than - expected yield reduction and the phenomenon of bad money driving out good money [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for apples is 8400 - 9000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 34.1% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - Inventory Management: For those worried about a new apple harvest and low purchase prices, they can short apple futures (AP2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 8800 - 8900, and sell call options (AP2601C8800) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 400 - 500 [3]. - Procurement Management: For those worried about rising apple prices, they can buy apple futures (AP2601) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 8400 - 8500, and sell put options (AP2511P8500) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 250 - 300 [3]. Apple Price and Inventory Data - Price Data: On October 9, 2025, the closing prices and price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) and spot prices (such as in Qixia, Luochuan) are presented. The daily and weekly price changes vary, and the盘面 profit has a 4.23% daily increase and a 22.72% weekly increase [5]. - Inventory Data: As of September 26, 2025 (Steel Union data) and September 25, 2025 (Zhuochuang data), the national cold - storage inventory and the storage capacity ratios in different regions (Shandong, Shaanxi, etc.) are shown, with most regions showing a decreasing trend. The arrival volumes of apples at some wholesale markets in Guangdong also increased [9].