黑色金属早报-20251009

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downside space. If downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies will also affect the market [4]. - The coking coal supply in October is expected to be relatively stable but lower than last year, and imported coal has room for growth. The current market supply and demand are balanced, and the future coal production regulation policies will support coking coal prices, while the steel demand and profit limit the upside space of raw materials [12]. - The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in the fourth quarter, the current weakening of terminal demand and the increase in supply have put downward pressure on prices [17]. - The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are generally stable, and the price is not suitable for short - selling. For silicomanganese, the supply is still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is stable, with cost support [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - Related News: The US will impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks from November 1, 2025, and the EU plans to impose a 50% tariff on steel imports, which may severely impact the UK steel industry [2]. - Spot Prices: In Shanghai, the price of rebar is 3230 yuan (-10), and the price of hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-20). In Beijing, the rebar price is 3160 yuan (-), and in Tianjin, the hot - rolled coil price is 3280 yuan (-10) [3]. - Logic Analysis: Before the holiday, the black sector declined, and during the holiday, steel stocks increased significantly. The supply and demand were weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. If the demand recovers in October, the price may rise [4]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - Related News: The utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased this week, and the production and inventory of raw coal and clean coal changed. During the National Day, the price of imported coking coal from Mongolia was stable [9]. - Logic Analysis: During the holiday, the prices of coking coal and coke were stable. In October, the supply of coking coal is expected to be stable but lower than last year, and the demand is supported by high pig iron production. In the medium - term, policies will support the price, but the steel demand limits the upside [11][12]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, it is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 1 - 5 spread; for options and spot - futures trading, it is recommended to wait and see [13][14]. Iron Ore - Related News: The cross - regional population flow during the National Day reached a record high, the US government continued to shut down, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port changed [14][16]. - Logic Analysis: During the holiday, the Singapore iron ore swap oscillated narrowly. In the third quarter, the global iron ore shipments increased, and the demand was weak in China but high overseas. The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels [17]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, it is recommended to expect a weak trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct spot - futures reverse arbitrage; for options, it is recommended to use the circuit - breaker cumulative put strategy [18]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Related News: The average operating rate of ferrosilicon in September decreased slightly, and the US government shut down [19][21]. - Logic Analysis: The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the demand was stable. The supply of silicomanganese decreased slightly but was still high year - on - year, and the demand was stable with cost support [22]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, it is recommended to reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [23].