橡胶甲醇原油：强弱分化明显，能化涨跌互现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oversold rebound, and a slight increase on Thursday. The price is expected to temporarily stabilize and fluctuate due to the potential impact of Typhoon "Maidumi" on natural rubber planting areas during the National Day holiday [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and a significant decline on Thursday. It is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend due to the weak supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weak downward movement, and a slight decline on Thursday. It is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend due to factors such as the US government shutdown, OPEC+ production increase, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 456,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 1.01%. The inventory in the bonded area remained unchanged, while the general trade inventory decreased by 1.18%. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses changed [9]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points [9]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In August 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 1% from July 2025 and a 35% increase from the same period last year. The cumulative sales in the first 8 months of 2025 reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.80%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.43%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.8727 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 59,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45,600 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 32,400 tons [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. As of September 30, 2025, the futures disk profit of methanol to olefin was - 132 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 23 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.2681 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 61,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 333,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 474,900 tons. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 320,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 116,900 tons [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a decrease of 57 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 124,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 429,000 barrels/day [14]. - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 420.3 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 3.715 million barrels and a slight decrease of 2.48 million barrels from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.704 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 763,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 285,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 92.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.0 percentage point, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 5.7 percentage points [14]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts from the August average, a decline of 15.65%. As of September 30, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 202,480 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 9,903 contracts and a slight increase of 162 contracts from the August average, an increase of 0.08% [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,650 yuan/ton | +350 yuan/ton | 15,415 yuan/ton | +385 yuan/ton | - 765 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,250 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | 2,290 yuan/ton | - 38 yuan/ton | - 40 yuan/ton | +21 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 451.1 yuan/barrel | - 8.1 yuan/barrel | 471.0 yuan/barrel | - 8.7 yuan/barrel | - 19.9 yuan/barrel | +0.6 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts such as rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: The report provides charts such as methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][37][41] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47]