乙二醇周报：乙二醇供应增量叠加需求疲弱，盘面维持弱势-20251009

Group 1: Report Key Points Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for ethylene glycol is likely to remain downward. Cost - side support from rebounding crude oil and coal prices is marginal, while supply pressure persists due to the recovery of oil - and coal - based plant operating rates. Demand lacks seasonal improvement, leading to a rapid increase in port inventories. The strengthening basis reflects the willingness of spot merchants to support prices, but the upside for futures is limited by high inventories. In the medium term, the focus should be on cost fluctuations and port de - stocking pace. Without substantial demand improvement, prices may continue to trade in the bottom range [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - 主力合约与基差: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped slightly from 4,224 yuan/ton to 4,207 yuan/ton, a 0.4% decline. The intraday fluctuation range narrowed, indicating increased market wait - and - see sentiment. The East China spot price also fell by 20 yuan/ton to 4,275 yuan/ton, and the basis widened from 76 yuan/ton to 93 yuan/ton, showing stronger short - term support in the spot market than in the futures market. The 1 - 5 spread continued to weaken to - 75 yuan/ton, reflecting pressure on the far - month contract expectations, while the 5 - 9 spread rebounded significantly by 47 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, suggesting a potential marginal alleviation of medium - term supply - demand contradictions [2]. - 持仓与成交: The main contract's open interest decreased by 6,856 lots to 314,030 lots, but trading volume increased by 18% to 136,773 lots, indicating that some funds left the market while market activity increased and short - term long - short competition intensified [2]. - 供给端: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate rose by 1.5 percentage points to 71.31%, mainly due to a 2.5 - percentage - point increase in the oil - based route operating rate to 76.94%, while the coal - based operating rate remained stable at 62.95%. Oil - based profits were still deeply in the red but did not deteriorate marginally, and coal - based profits were stable at - 574 yuan/ton, with no obvious relief in cost - side pressure [2]. - 需求端: The downstream polyester plant load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal orders did not show seasonal improvement, and polyester sales were dull, resulting in raw material purchases mainly for rigid demand, lacking upward drivers on the demand side [3]. - 库存端: The East China main port inventory increased by 5.9 tons week - on - week to 48.57 tons, and the Zhangjiagang inventory soared by 5.2 tons to 18 tons, reaching a new high for the year. Although the arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, port pick - up volume remained low, and inventory pressure accumulated rapidly, suppressing market sentiment [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - 期货相关数据: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased from 4,224 yuan/ton to 4,207 yuan/ton, a 0.4% decline. Trading volume increased by 18.01% to 136,773 lots, and open interest decreased by 2.14% to 314,030 lots [5]. - 现货及价差数据: The East China market spot price of MEG dropped by 20 yuan/ton to 4,275 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 17.11% to 63 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 19.05% to - 75 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 58.75% to - 33 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 24.48% to 108 yuan/ton [5]. - 利润数据: The coal - based profit decreased by 5.23% to - 604 yuan/ton, while data for naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based profits were not provided [5]. - 开工负荷数据: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 2.19% to 71.3%, with the oil - based operating rate rising by 3.43% to 76.9% and the coal - based operating rate remaining unchanged at 63.0%. The polyester plant load, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load, ethylene - based operating rate, and methanol - based operating rate all remained stable [5]. - 库存与到港量数据: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10].