生猪日报：出栏压力体现，现货持续回落-20251009

Report Overview - Report Title: "Livestock Daily - October 9, 2025" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure in the pig market is significant, with the overall supply remaining high. The price of live pigs in the spot market continues to decline, and the futures price also faces obvious downward pressure. The overall price trend is expected to be downward [4][6] Summary by Directory Spot Market - Price Changes: The spot prices of live pigs across the country showed an obvious downward trend. The average price dropped from 11.25 to 11.19, a decrease of 0.06 [4] - Supply Situation: The slaughter volume of scale enterprises and ordinary farmers increased, and the secondary fattening inventory continued to decline, but there was still some pressure to sell. The weight of live pigs for slaughter continued to increase, and the supply of large - weight pigs was still abundant [4] Futures Market - Price Changes: The futures prices of live pigs continued to decline significantly. For example, LH01 dropped from 12825 to 12165, a decrease of 660 [4] - Market Expectation: Due to the obvious supply pressure in the future, the overall futures price is expected to continue to decline [6] Breeding and Related Prices - Piglet and Sow Prices: The price of piglets dropped from 236 to 212, a decrease of 24, and the price of sows dropped from 1588 to 1570, a decrease of 18 [4] - Breeding Profits: The spot breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets both decreased. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising decreased from - 24.44 to - 74.11, a decrease of 49.66, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased from - 199.31 to - 236.57, a decrease of 37.25 [4] Slaughter and Price Difference - Slaughter Volume: The slaughter volume increased slightly from 152586 to 152651, an increase of 65 [4] - Price Difference Changes: The price differences between different sizes of pigs continued to widen, such as the difference between large pigs and standard pigs increasing from 0.5 to 0.6, an increase of 0.1 [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: Short - selling near - month contracts [7] - Arbitrage: Conduct LH15 reverse arbitrage [7] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]