有色金属行业事件点评：降息预期叠加避险需求增加，国际金价突破4000美元大关

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Market Weight" [10] Core Views - The core driving force for the rise in gold prices is the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 94.10% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [9] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has surged due to concerns over U.S. government stability and geopolitical tensions, providing ongoing support for gold prices [9] - The report anticipates that international gold prices will exhibit a high-level fluctuation in the short to medium term, driven by interest rate cuts and heightened safe-haven demand [9] Summary by Sections - Gold Price Movement: As of October 8, COMEX gold futures closed at $4030 per ounce, and London spot gold reached $4040.05 per ounce, both surpassing the $4000 mark [4] - Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations: The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut has initiated a new easing cycle, with potential for two more cuts by year-end, which is expected to lower the cost of holding gold [9] - Central Bank Gold Purchases: In Q2 2025, global central banks are projected to net purchase 166 tons of gold, with a strong inclination to continue increasing gold reserves [9] - Investment Demand: The World Gold Council reported net inflows into gold ETFs of 226.6 tons and 170.5 tons in Q1 and Q2 respectively, significantly exceeding the previous year's figures [9] - Market Outlook: The report suggests that gold prices will maintain upward momentum in the medium to long term due to the interplay of interest rate cuts and rising safe-haven demand [9]