聚酯链日报：成本支撑弱化叠加累库压力，PX及PTA延续弱势运行-20251009

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - PX and PTA continue to operate weakly due to weakened cost support and inventory accumulation pressure [1] - The price center of the polyester industry chain may shift downward, with POY potentially performing stronger due to low inventory [4] - Considering the supply, demand, and inventory situation, PX and PTA prices may continue to face downward pressure unless there is a sustained improvement in demand or supply - side maintenance and production cuts [38] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On September 30, the PX main contract closed at 6,570 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 97 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,594 yuan/ton, down 1.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, on September 30, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.77 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 63.18 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, the total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 1.23 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 865,670 meters [2] - The supply of PX and PTA is generally loose. The continuous weakening of the PX basis reflects the current oversupply pressure in the spot market. Although some domestic PX plants have short - term shutdowns and overhauls, the overall operating rate remains relatively high. For PTA, low processing fees have increased the factory's willingness to cut production, but the reduction of some plants under high inventory is insufficient to reverse the supply - demand pattern, and the supply pressure will continue with future new plant commissioning plans [2] - Downstream polyester demand shows signs of marginal weakening. The single - day trading volume of Light Textile City is mainly driven by short - term factors such as pre - holiday restocking. The 15 - day average trading data is still lower than the normal level in the peak season, and the terminal weaving orders show seasonal weakening signs. The polyester sector maintains rigid demand, but there is a risk of a decline in the operating rate under increasing inventory pressure, and the procurement demand for PTA may weaken marginally [3] - The PTA inventory structure continues the inventory accumulation trend. The current inventory days of PTA factories are flat month - on - month but still at a high absolute level, and the continuous accumulation of social inventory reflects the loose supply - demand pattern. Considering the incremental pressure brought by the commissioning of the new Fengming plant in October and the uncertainty of the sustainability of downstream restocking, the inflection point of inventory reduction has not appeared, and high inventory will continue to suppress the spot price and futures valuation [3] Polyester - On September 30, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,276 yuan/ton, down 0.95% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,405 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 129 yuan/ton [4] - The MA15 trading volume of China Light Textile City has continuously climbed from 760,000 meters to 865,670 meters. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber (6.36 days), polyester filament DTY (29.5 days), and FDY (25.7 days) are all higher than the average of the past 5 years, while the inventory days of POY (18.8 days) are lower than the 5 - year average of 20.4 days, indicating inventory reduction pressure for staple fiber and some filament varieties. Overall, driven by the downward trend of oil prices at the PX - PTA cost end and the slow recovery of demand, the price center of the polyester industry chain may shift downward, and POY may perform stronger due to low inventory [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.50% to 6,570 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 5.68% to 189,612 lots, and the open interest decreased by 17.48% to 68,124 lots [5] - PX spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port and the FOB price in South Korea remained unchanged at 816 US dollars/ton and 792 US dollars/ton respectively [5] - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.25% to 4,594 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 2.27% to 593,958 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2.50% to 964,348 lots [5] - PTA spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 613 US dollars/ton [5] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.95% to 6,276 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 1.21% to 183,370 lots, and the open interest decreased by 19.97% to 93,016 lots [5] - Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market decreased by 0.47% to 6,405 yuan/ton [5] - Other industrial chain prices such as Brent crude oil, WTI, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged [5] - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of PTA increased by 1.13% to 189.3 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged [6] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume increased by 17.93% to 1.23 million meters, with long - fiber fabric trading volume at 927,000 meters and short - fiber fabric trading volume at 304,000 meters [6][9] - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 75.86%, 89.42%, and 63.43% respectively [6] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY decreased by 11.05%, 8.74%, 10.76%, and 6.35% respectively [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On September 30, gold broke through 3,830 US dollars, reaching new highs, and the value of the US gold reserve exceeded 1 trillion US dollars [7] - New York Fed President Williams supported interest rate cuts at the previous meeting due to signs of labor market weakness, estimating the real neutral interest rate at 0.75%; this year's voting member, St. Louis Fed President Musalem, is open to future interest rate cuts but advocates caution, expecting inflation to remain high in the next two to three quarters; Cleveland Fed President Hamerak continues to advocate a hawkish stance, saying that tight monetary policy needs to be maintained to curb inflation [7] - Switzerland plans to invest in the US gold refining industry in exchange for Trump's tariff reduction [7] - Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the Gaza conflict, with Israel to withdraw troops in stages, not occupy or annex Gaza; a peace committee chaired by Trump will be established, and Israel has accepted the plan while Hamas will review it [7] - On September 29, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that upcoming data will determine whether the Fed should further cut interest rates; Fed Governor Bowman strongly supports the Fed holding only treasury bonds and believes it is appropriate to ignore the one - time impact of tariffs [7] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year - on - year, turning from a 1.5% decline in the previous month; from January to August, the year - on - year increase was 0.9% [7] Supply - Demand - Demand - On September 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 1.23 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 17.93%, with long - fiber fabric trading volume at 927,000 meters and short - fiber fabric trading volume at 304,000 meters [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as PX and PTA main futures and basis, PTA futures monthly spreads, short - fiber futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester product inventory days, etc [10][12][14] 5. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - On September 30, PX and PTA main contracts declined by 1.5% and 1.25% respectively. The decline in crude oil prices may affect upstream costs. The trading volume of Light Textile City on that day was 1.23 million meters, with a 15 - day average of 865,670 meters, indicating possible fluctuations in recent demand [37] - On the supply side, the negative PX basis may indicate sufficient spot supply or inventory accumulation pressure, and there may be some plant restarts. For PTA, the basis has turned from negative to positive, but the inventory has not changed significantly, and the supply pressure may increase as factories maintain high operating rates under low profits. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning or overhaul plans [37] - On the demand side, the sudden increase in the trading volume of Light Textile City, but with a daily average of 865,000 meters, may show short - term restocking or temporary order increases in the downstream, but the overall improvement of the textile industry is uncertain. If the polyester operating rate remains high, it may support PTA demand; otherwise, there may be inventory accumulation risks [37] - In terms of inventory, the PTA factory inventory days are at a medium level, but the social inventory has increased compared with last week. If downstream demand cannot be sustained, inventory may continue to accumulate, especially if the supply side maintains a high operating rate. Attention should be paid to inventory changes in the next few weeks [38] - Overall, the decline in crude oil prices may reduce the costs of PX and PTA, but PX supply is sufficient and PTA supply pressure is high; the short - term demand is strong but its sustainability is uncertain; inventory has begun to accumulate. Therefore, PX and PTA prices may continue to be under downward pressure unless there is a continuous improvement in demand or supply - side overhauls and production cuts [38]