超长债利差触及新高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The yield spread of ultra - long bonds has reached a new high. The adjustment trend of ultra - long credit bonds is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the duration strategy needs to be cautious [4][34] - Although the coupon advantage of ultra - long credit bonds is apparent after adjustment, due to the lack of incremental funds and the weak market sentiment, investors should be prudent in adopting the duration strategy [4][34] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1存量市场特征 - The yield center of ultra - long credit bonds has been continuously rising. From September 29 to 30, 2025, the interest rate center of existing ultra - long credit bonds further increased. The number of existing ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.6% - 2.7% increased to 248 compared to the previous week [2][12] 3.2一级发行情况 - There was no issuance of ultra - long credit bonds in the week before the National Day [3][20] 3.3二级成交表现 - The decline of the ultra - long credit bond index was greater than that of other mainstream bond varieties. From September 29 to 30, 2025, the index prices of medium - short - term credit bonds and bank sub - debt showed signs of stabilization, but the ultra - long credit bond index continued to lead the decline. The index of AA + credit bonds with a term of over 10 years decreased by 0.24% week - on - week [4][21] - The liquidity of ultra - long credit bonds was under pressure. In two trading days of the week, the total number of transactions of general credit bonds with a term of over 7 years was 62, indicating a weakening trend. The yield and spread of ultra - long credit bonds both increased, and the spread between general credit bonds with a term of over 10 years and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds widened to over 50bp [4][24] - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds was weak. The TKN ratio of varieties with a term of over 10 years was at a low level, and the deviation of high - valuation transactions was much higher than that of bonds with a term of less than 10 years [4][28] - In terms of investor structure, funds continued to sell ultra - long credit bonds. Concerns about duration risk and liquidity flaws affected the allocation decisions of trading desks. The support from insurance and wealth - management institutions was limited, and the adjustment trend of ultra - long credit bonds was difficult to reverse in the short term [4][32] - From a more microscopic perspective, the spread between active ultra - long credit bonds of each term and treasury bonds of similar terms reached a 24 - year high this week, and the spread of varieties around the 10 - year term reached a new high for the year [34]