Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-09 11:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly focusing on technology-driven sectors such as robotics, AI, and low-altitude economy [5]. Core Insights - The fourth batch of "trade-in" funds has been allocated, signaling the end of automotive subsidies, while the exemption from purchase tax for new energy vehicles will be halved starting next year, increasing costs for consumers [5][10]. - The report suggests that in light of uncertain consumer spending, investors should focus on "future industries" and companies with strong growth potential [5]. - The report highlights significant sales data, with retail sales of passenger cars reaching 650,000 units in the 39th week of 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 27.95% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.02% [5]. Industry Updates - Traditional energy vehicle sales were approximately 280,000 units, up 32.70% month-on-month but down 15.07% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales reached 370,000 units, up 24.58% month-on-month and up 13.15% year-on-year, resulting in a penetration rate of 56.92% for new energy vehicles [5]. - The automotive industry index rose by 1.70% this week, closing at 8244.78 points, which is lower than the 1.99% increase in the CSI 300 index [15][20]. - The report notes that 151 automotive stocks rose while 133 fell, with the largest gainers being Shanzi Gaoke, Songyuan Co., and Huamao Technology, which increased by 21.1%, 19.5%, and 12.1% respectively [20]. Market Conditions - The total transaction value in the automotive sector reached 379.87 billion yuan this week, with a daily increase of 11.52% [5]. - The report indicates a decline in raw material prices for both traditional and new energy vehicles, with a decrease of 1.3% and 0.1% respectively over the past week [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, Xpeng, and Li Auto, as well as component manufacturers with strong performance and growth potential like Fuyao Glass and New Spring [5]. - It also suggests monitoring state-owned enterprise reforms, particularly with SAIC and Dongfeng, as potential investment opportunities [5].