纯苯：苯乙烯风险管理日报-20251009

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, while the demand is weak, leading to a difficult - to - change inventory accumulation pattern. The supply of styrene is tightening due to increased device maintenance, and it is expected to increase in mid - to - late October when new device production is realized. From September to November, styrene will maintain a tight balance, but its upward space is limited. In the short term, it will mainly follow crude oil fluctuations, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - sided trading. One can consider widening the price spread between pure benzene and styrene when the price is low [4]. - Macro factors such as the "anti - involution", the Fourth Plenary Session in October, and the 14th Five - Year Plan outline need to be monitored. In the absence of obvious fundamental drivers, macro sentiment will affect the market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Price Forecast: The monthly price range for pure benzene is predicted to be between 5,600 and 6,200 yuan/ton, and for styrene, it is between 6,600 and 7,200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over three years is 85.8% [3]. - Hedging Strategies: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short styrene futures (EB2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6,850 - 6,950 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (EB2511C7000) with a 50% ratio at a premium range of 45 - 60 to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if styrene prices rise [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy styrene futures (EB2511) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6,700 - 6,750 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (EB2511P6800) with a 75% ratio at a premium range of 120 - 140 to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if styrene prices fall [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Analysis - Pure Benzene: In the fourth quarter, the overall maintenance loss of pure benzene is not high, small long - shut devices plan to resume production, and there are import transactions from Europe to China. On the demand side, downstream production and maintenance coexist, and the peak season is likely to be weak this year, so the high supply cannot be digested, and the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [4]. - Styrene: Device maintenance has increased, and the supply has tightened. New device production is expected to increase supply in mid - to - late October. From September to November, it will maintain a tight balance, but high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene limit its upward space [4]. 3.3利多 and利空 Factors - 利多 Factors: As of October 9, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu decreased by 1.5 million tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 33.7%. Multiple styrene devices, including Jingbosi D睿, Anhui Jiaxi, and Lianyungang Petrochemical, plan to shut down for maintenance, making it difficult to further compress the price spread between pure benzene and styrene [4]. - 利空 Factors: As of October 9, the port sample inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 0.44 million tons compared to the previous period, an increase of 2.23%. Some devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical have restarted as planned, offsetting part of the new maintenance losses. Two large - scale styrene devices of Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical are planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.4 Basis and Price Spread Changes - Basis Changes: The basis of pure benzene and styrene in the East China market has changed compared to the previous period. For example, the basis of East China - BZ03 for pure benzene decreased from 60 to - 13, a decrease of 73 [8]. - Price Spread Changes: The price spreads of pure benzene, styrene, and the pure benzene - styrene industry chain have changed. For example, the price spread between styrene spot and pure benzene spot increased from 1,035 to 1,075 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [8]. 3.5 Price and Profit Data - Price Data: The prices of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain have changed. For example, the price of Brent crude oil on October 9 was 66.08 US dollars/barrel, and the price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [9]. - Profit Data: The production profits of pure benzene and the profits of downstream products of styrene have also changed. For example, the production profit of pure benzene increased from 173 to 314 yuan/ton, an increase of 141 yuan/ton [9].