2025年四季度A股投资策略：行情换挡，由流动性叙事迈向盈利驱动

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the A-share market is transitioning from a liquidity-driven narrative to one driven by earnings, with the market expected to face increased macro constraints in the fourth quarter of 2025 [4][8][63] - In the third quarter of 2025, the A-share market strengthened significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3882.78, reflecting a quarterly increase of 12.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 29.3% [15][4] - The TMT sector was a major contributor to the index's rise, with notable increases in electronic, communication, and media sectors, which rose by 47.6%, 48.6%, and 20.3% respectively [16][4] Group 2 - Domestic economic growth momentum has slowed, with GDP growth in the third quarter expected to be around 4.8%, influenced by factors such as declining export growth and adjustments in the real estate market [5][29] - The report anticipates that the policy support for economic growth will strengthen, with measures including loan interest subsidies and early issuance of local government debt limits [5][39] - A-share earnings are stabilizing, with overall earnings growth expected to achieve mid-single-digit growth in 2025, supported by enhanced policy measures and resilient exports [7][41] Group 3 - The influx of incremental capital is expected to continue supporting the A-share market, driven by improved investor confidence and favorable economic conditions [48][7] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is set to provide new guidance for the capital market, focusing on industrial development, economic structure adjustments, and fiscal reforms [53][56] - The report suggests that investment strategies should focus on structural opportunities, particularly those related to the "15th Five-Year Plan," core asset value reassessment, and various thematic opportunities [66][66]