瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the I2601 contract rebounded with increased positions. Macroscopically, most Fed officials indicated that further policy easing in 2025 might be appropriate, with a few supporting no rate - cut in September. In terms of supply - demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased this period while arrivals increased, and domestic port inventories turned from decreasing to increasing. Due to the holiday, downstream steel demand weakened and inventories increased. Overall, the expectation of blast furnace复产 by steel mills after the holiday and the expectation of continued Fed rate - cuts may support the iron ore price to run strongly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels with an enlarged red column. The operation suggestion is to expect a volatile and upward trend with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 790.50 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the position volume was 459,565 lots, up 12,200 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread was 19.5 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 8,651 lots, up 6,698 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt was 500.00 lots, up 500.00 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 104.9 dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 0.77 dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 849 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 837 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 766 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 46 yuan, down 7 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 104.20 dollars/ton, up 0.10 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore was 3.30, down 0.02. The estimated import cost was 852 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,279.00 million tons, down 196.40 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) was 2,775.80 million tons, up 172.10 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,550.68 million tons, up 169.00 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,736.39 million tons, up 426.96 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,522.00 million tons, up 60.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 26.00 days, up 1 day. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.04 million tons, down 0.77 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.28%, down 0.95%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 43.27 million tons, up 5.60 million tons. The BDI index was 1,963.00, up 16.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 25.46 dollars/ton (unchanged), and from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.34 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 84.27%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.63%, down 0.25%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 14.68%, up 0.46%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.10%, up 0.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 17.42%, down 1.96%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.02%, down 1.79% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From September 29 to October 5, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,279.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 196.4 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,825.9 million tons, with Australian shipments at 1,979.9 million tons (down 48.1 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1,661.2 million tons, down 110.2 million tons) and Brazilian shipments at 846.0 million tons (up 9.9 million tons). The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,775.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 172.1 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,608.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 248.2 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,451.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 450.2 million tons [2]