瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - side pressure in the domestic cotton market is gradually increasing as new cotton is being listed and the new season shows a significant bumper harvest. Meanwhile, the demand side has not improved significantly, with textile mills' orders not showing obvious improvement and the operating rate lower than the same period last year. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has not emerged. It is expected that the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures will be weak after the holiday [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,295 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the main contract closing price of cotton yarn is 19,545 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 37,086 lots, down 4,866 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 106 lots, down 41 lots [2] - The main contract holding volume of cotton is 550,497 lots, up 15,043 lots; the main contract holding volume of cotton yarn is 3,221 lots, down 687 lots [2] - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 3,030, down 51; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,739 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,530 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,146 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,311 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tax) is 14,068 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count combed cotton yarn is 22,497 yuan/ton, down 166 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,791 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870,000 tons, up 13,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 70,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2] - The daily profit of imported cotton is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.4817 million tons, down 708,100 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days [2] - The monthly output of cloth is 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 14,145,904,000 US dollars, down 1,015,855,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 12,393,202,000 US dollars, up 789,193,000 US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 12.17%, up 0.5%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 12.17%, up 0.5% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.51%, up 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.65%, up 0.26% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In October, the temperature in southern Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin cotton - growing areas is expected to be higher and precipitation lower, which is conducive to cotton boll opening and harvesting; the northern Xinjiang cotton - growing area may experience low - temperature and frost due to cold air, which is not conducive to cotton harvesting and drying; most of the Yellow River Basin cotton - growing areas will have normal temperature but more precipitation, which may cause continuous rainy weather, affecting cotton boll opening and picking and reducing cotton quality [2]