Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - During the National Day holiday, the market demand did not improve, prices showed a downward trend, and the weather affected downstream demand, resulting in a weak spot market, weak demand, and falling prices dragging down futures prices. Currently, the futures price has reached a new low, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of the spot market [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the market opened low and moved lower, with an intraday decline. During the National Day holiday, the market demand did not improve, and prices showed a downward trend. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1,510 - 1,590 yuan/ton. Upstream factories had many overhauls during the holiday, and the daily output slightly decreased but remained above 190,000 tons. Rainfall during the holiday affected corn harvesting and wheat sowing in North China, reducing urea demand and delaying the farming season. Downstream factories were on holiday, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories decreased significantly, and the terminal was weak due to rainfall. It is expected that factories will gradually resume production after the holiday, and terminal purchases will improve after the weather gets better. The inventory in upstream factories increased by about 17% compared with last week [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1,648 yuan/ton, moved lower throughout the day, and finally closed at 1,609 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.42%. The trading volume was 310,689 lots (+43,221 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 21,894 lots, and short positions increased by 26,197 lots. Fangzheng Futures had a net long position of +2,259 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of +2,059 lots, Dongzheng Futures had a net short position of +8,002 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of +2,731 lots. On October 9, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,017, a decrease of 152 from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 152 in Tieling Dongbeifeng [2] - Spot: During the National Day holiday, the market demand did not improve, and prices showed a downward trend. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1,510 - 1,590 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation decreased, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 39 yuan/ton (+41 yuan/ton) [8] - Supply data: On October 9, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 199,400 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.25% [9] - Downstream data: From October 4th to October 10th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 25.5%, a decrease of 6.96 percentage points from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 65.47%, an increase of 3.95 percentage points from last week [13]
天气影响下，终端疲软
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-10-09 12:02