冠通每日交易策略-20251009

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to rise due to factors such as the Fed's potential entry into a rate - cut cycle, supply concerns from mine disruptions, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand season [9]. - Lithium carbonate is in a stage of shock consolidation, with the need to focus on the resumption of upstream mines [11]. - For crude oil, due to weak supply - demand conditions, it is recommended to short on rallies [12]. - The asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a shock manner [14]. - PP is expected to decline in a shock manner due to factors like insufficient peak - season demand and lack of anti - involution policies [15][17]. - The plastic price is expected to decline in a shock manner in the near term, affected by factors such as weak cost and insufficient peak - season demand [18]. - PVC is expected to decline under pressure, considering factors like high inventory and weak cost [20]. - Coking coal is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the impact of subsequent coal mine accidents needs to be monitored [21]. - For urea, attention should be paid to the inflection point of the spot market as the futures price has reached a new low [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 09, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Metals like Shanghai Gold, Palm Oil, Shanghai Copper, and International Copper rose by over 4%, while Shanghai Tin, Soybean Oil, Shanghai Nickel, and Shanghai Silver rose by over 2%. In terms of declines, Live Hogs and LPG fell by over 5%, Eggs fell by over 4%, Urea fell by over 3%, and Caustic Soda, Methanol, and Propylene fell by over 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed different degrees of increase [5]. 3.2 Capital Flow - As of 15:19 on October 09, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, CSI 500 2512 had an inflow of 5.082 billion, SSE 300 2512 had an inflow of 3.998 billion, and Shanghai Gold 2512 had an inflow of 1.702 billion. In terms of capital outflow, Shanghai Zinc 2511 had an outflow of 288 million, Live Hogs 2511 had an outflow of 276 million, and Eggs 2511 had an outflow of 180 million [7]. 3.3 Analysis of Specific Varieties - Shanghai Copper: It opened high and moved higher. Due to factors such as the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle, supply concerns from mine disruptions, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand season, the copper price is expected to rise [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: It opened high and moved in a narrow range after the holiday. Although stimulated by the news of storage battery orders, there is no significant growth driver in the fundamentals, and it is in a shock consolidation stage [11]. - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to increase production in November, and factors such as weak demand, geopolitical risks, and inventory changes lead to a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to short on rallies [12]. - Asphalt: The supply side shows an increase in the start - up rate, and the demand side is restricted by factors such as funds and rainfall. The futures price is expected to decline in a shock manner [14]. - PP: The start - up rate of downstream industries is rising, but the peak - season demand is not as expected. With the increase in new production capacity and lack of anti - involution policies, it is expected to decline in a shock manner [15][17]. - Plastic: The agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the peak - season demand is not satisfactory. With the increase in new production capacity and lack of anti - involution policies, it is expected to decline in a shock manner in the near term [18]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price has fallen, the supply side's start - up rate has increased, and the demand side is affected by factors such as the real estate market. The export expectation is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to decline under pressure [20]. - Coking Coal: After the accident in a coal mine, the supply is expected to gradually recover. The downstream demand is relatively stable, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [21]. - Urea: Affected by weather and holiday factors, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The futures price has reached a new low, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of the spot market [23].