Tianfeng Securities·2025-10-09 13:45Group 1: Overview of Major Assets - In Q3 2025, A-shares quickly broke through 3800 points, followed by high-level fluctuations, while bond rates continued to rise and commodities experienced a pullback [1][9] - The A-share market saw broad index gains, with the ChiNext Index leading, and growth and cyclical styles outperforming [1][13] - The bond market experienced a continuous rise in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a high of 1.9022% [1][26] - Commodity performance was mixed, with gold and silver prices rising significantly, while the Nanhua Industrial Product Index peaked in July and then declined [1][29] Group 2: A-share Market Dynamics - The fundamental outlook for the A-share market remained weak in Q3, with PPI showing signs of recovery but key economic indicators declining for two consecutive months [2] - Macro liquidity improved in Q3, with M1 continuing to rise since March and the M1-M2 spread narrowing for four months [2] - Micro-funding activities saw increased activity from southbound funds, a significant rebound in margin financing, and record high ETF trading volumes [2][14] - The manufacturing sector's "anti-involution" trend boosted cyclical stocks, while the AI computing power theme gained traction [2][14] Group 3: Overseas Market Trends - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve began to rise in August, culminating in a 25 basis point cut in September [3] - The U.S. economy showed resilience with cooling inflation, but political pressures could widen credit risks for the dollar [3]