Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sudden news of a coal mine accident, combined with the public opinion effect of safety production assessment inspections and the market sentiment boost from the rise of related varieties such as gold and non - ferrous metals, drove the futures market to rise. However, the actual supply impact of the coal mine accident was limited, and it was more of a short - term emotional drive [3]. - During the holiday, the apparent demand for the five major steel products was weak, and the inventory accumulation rate was significantly faster than in previous years. The inventory - to - sales ratio had climbed to a high level in the same period in recent years, indicating significant de - stocking pressure on steel products [3]. - Long - process steel mills still had some profit margins and had a low willingness to cut production actively, while there were no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side. The contradiction between high supply and insufficient demand persisted, and the negative feedback pressure was gradually accumulating [3]. - Although there was replenishment support on the raw material side before the holiday, it was expected that the post - holiday replenishment momentum would weaken under the state of steel's super - seasonal inventory accumulation. The strengthening of the futures market was only a rebound driven by events and emotional repair, not a fundamental - driven reversal. The upward resistance was significant, and the market was expected to remain under pressure in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - The predicted price range for the 01 - contract of rebar in October was 2900 - 3300 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 11.25% and a volatility percentile of 14.7%. The predicted price range for the 01 - contract of hot - rolled coil was 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 11.95% and a volatility percentile of 13.34% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about falling steel prices, it was recommended to short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio for RB2501 and HC2501 was 30%, with the entry range of 3130 - 3200 yuan/ton for RB2501 and 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton for HC2501. Selling call options (RB2601C3400) was also recommended to reduce capital costs, with a ratio of 20% and an entry range of 30 - 40 yuan [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, it was recommended to buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio for RB2601 and HC2601 was 30%, with the entry range of 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton for RB2601 and 3200 - 3250 yuan/ton for HC2601. Selling put options (RB2601P2900) was also recommended to collect option premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a ratio of 20% and an entry range of 35 - 45 yuan [2]. 3.3 Market Data - Futures Prices: On October 9, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3096 yuan/ton, 3159 yuan/ton, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 24 yuan/ton, 31 yuan/ton, and 31 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly changes of - 68 yuan/ton, - 68 yuan/ton, and - 51 yuan/ton respectively. The closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3286 yuan/ton, 3293 yuan/ton, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 33 yuan/ton, 34 yuan/ton, and - 14 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly changes of - 71 yuan/ton, - 72 yuan/ton, and - 44 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - Spot Prices: On October 9, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, and Tianjin were 3258 yuan/ton, 3240 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, 3290 yuan/ton, and 3210 yuan/ton respectively. The aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and Shenyang were 3350 yuan/ton, 3320 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - Overseas Data: As of October 9, 2025, the FOB export prices of hot - rolled coil in China, Japan, India, Turkey, and the CIS were 480 US dollars/ton, 500 US dollars/ton, 512 US dollars/ton, 540 US dollars/ton, and 485 US dollars/ton respectively. The CFR import prices in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, the EU, and India were 493 US dollars/ton, 530 US dollars/ton, 565 US dollars/ton, and 422 US dollars/ton respectively [6]. - Spread Data: On October 9, 2025, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - spreads of rebar were - 63 yuan/ton, 139 yuan/ton, and - 76 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - spreads of hot - rolled coil were - 7 yuan/ton, - 125 yuan/ton, and 84 yuan/ton respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 181 yuan/ton, 131 yuan/ton, and 350 yuan/ton respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 ratios of rebar to iron ore were 3.94, 4.12, and 4.04 respectively, and the 01, 05, and 10 ratios of rebar to coke were 1.89, 1.77, and 1.62 respectively [6][8][10]. 3.4 Seasonal Data The report also provided a large amount of seasonal data, including the seasonal data of rebar and hot - rolled coil basis, month - spreads, profits, costs, and inventory, etc., which could help investors understand the historical laws of the market and make more informed investment decisions [13][15][27][33][46].
螺纹钢、热卷产业险管理日报-20251009
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-09 13:44