银行理财月度跟踪-20251009

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Views - The wealth management market has shown stable growth in the existing scale this year, but the growth rate is slower compared to public funds. As of the end of August 2025, the scale of public funds reached 36.25 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.3%. The existing scale of wealth management has exceeded 30 trillion yuan since the end of the first half of the year, with a growth rate in single digits. This is attributed to the low deposit interest rate environment causing a migration of funds, while public funds continue to attract inflows due to the favorable equity market conditions [5][12] - In September, the average annualized yield of cash management wealth management products was 1.33%, down 2 basis points from the previous month and down 50 basis points from December of the previous year. The average annualized yield of money market funds was 1.21%, unchanged from the previous value, and down 35 basis points from December of the previous year. The yield difference between cash management products and traditional money market funds has been narrowing [6][15] - The overall break-even rate of wealth management products increased in September, with the break-even rate of fixed income + wealth management products at approximately 4.4%, continuing to rise from the previous month. The number of deeply broken products (unit net value < 0.99) remains low, indicating an upward trend in break-even rates due to increased volatility in the bond market and differentiated performance in the equity market [9][27] Summary by Sections Wealth Management Market Dynamics - The existing scale of wealth management has shown stable growth, but the growth rate is slower compared to public funds. The existing scale has exceeded 30 trillion yuan, with a growth rate in single digits. The low deposit interest rate environment has contributed to this expansion, while public funds have attracted more inflows due to favorable equity market conditions [5][12] Wealth Management Product Yields - In September, the average yield of pure fixed income wealth management products was 2.09%, down 0.47 percentage points from the previous month. The yield of fixed income + wealth management products was 1.65%, down 0.99 percentage points. The yields across different maturities of fixed income wealth management products have decreased, with short-term yields at 1.90%, medium-term at 2.38%, and long-term at 1.84% [7][22] - The average yield of short-term fixed income + wealth management products was 1.78%, down 0.37 percentage points, medium-term at 1.50%, down 0.88 percentage points, and long-term at 2.06%, down 2.12 percentage points [8][22] Wealth Management Product Break-even Rates - The break-even rate of wealth management products has increased, with the overall break-even rate of fixed income + wealth management products at approximately 4.4%, indicating a rising trend due to increased market volatility [9][27]