白糖产业日报-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the rebound in external sugar prices and the typhoon weather in China, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to rise after the holiday, but the increase will be limited by supply [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,528 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 35 yuan; the position of the main contract is 373,744 lots, a decrease of 14,293 lots [2] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 8,898, a decrease of 70; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -76,833 lots, a decrease of 1,049 lots [2] - The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar is 0 [2] - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,482 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,426 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,694 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan [2] - The spot price of white granulated sugar in Kunming is 5,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; in Nanning it is 5,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; in Liuzhou it is 5,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 9.9989 million tons, an increase of 499,800 tons [2] - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.98%, an increase of 1 percentage point [2] - The monthly import volume of sugar is 830,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.2458 million tons, a decrease of 498,200 tons [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,202 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is -10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 454,100 tons, an increase of 44,100 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1.7758 million tons, a decrease of 20,800 tons [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for sugar is 8.36%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points; that of at-the-money put options is 8.37%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points [2] - The 20-day historical volatility of sugar is 6.54%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the 60-day historical volatility is 6.5%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - Brazilian sugar exports in September were 3.2458 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 493,200 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%. From April 2025 to September 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 17.75 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.73% [2] - In the first half of September 2025, the sugar cane crushed in central and southern Brazil was 45.973 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.94%; sugar production was 3.622 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.72% [2] - Affected by the typhoon "Maidolum", some sugar cane in Guangxi has lodged, which may affect production. Sugar mills in northern beet-producing areas have gradually started production, and the supply of 460,000 tons of out-of-quota raw sugar is expected to arrive in September [2]