Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has slightly rebounded. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the export remains high. The negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still ferments repeatedly. Attention should be paid to the strength of post - holiday demand recovery [1] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with concerns about supply disruptions increasing, and the future pressure of steel mills to cut production gradually rising [2] - The coke price has risen, with sufficient carbon supply and the price support at the previous low being relatively solid [3] - The coking coal price has rebounded under the influence of market sentiment regarding production safety inspections, with sufficient carbon supply and relatively solid support near the previous low [5] - The silicomanganese price has bottomed out and rebounded, with high iron - water production and good market demand. It may have a certain rebound market driven by coking coal [6] - The ferrosilicon price has bottomed out and rebounded, with overall good demand and may have a certain rebound market driven by coking coal [7] Summary by Categories Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded. During the long holiday, the apparent demand for thread steel dropped significantly, the output decreased slightly, and the inventory increased substantially. The demand for hot - rolled coil also declined, with a slight decrease in output and a large increase in inventory. The iron - water output remained high, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. The negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still fermented repeatedly as steel mills' profits declined. The overall domestic demand was still weak, and steel exports remained high, with the EU's additional tariffs causing some disturbances. After continuous adjustments, the market stabilized slightly, and the market sentiment was cautious [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures rose. The global iron ore shipment decreased month - on - month, with a large decline in non - mainstream countries, while the domestic arrival volume increased. Affected by the Ximangzhu iron ore accident and BHP agreements, concerns about supply disruptions increased. In the short term, iron - water demand was resilient, and steel mills had certain replenishment needs around the National Day. However, as steel mills' profits shrank and domestic demand remained relatively low, the future pressure to cut production gradually increased. There were still certain policy expectations in the market, but the uncertainty of foreign trade frictions also remained. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2] Coke - The coke price rose during the day. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was fully implemented, and there was no news of a second - round increase. The coking profit was average, the daily output decreased slightly, and the coke inventory continued to increase. Traders' purchasing willingness decreased. Overall, the carbon supply was sufficient, and the price support at the previous low was relatively solid [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rose during the day. 22 central safety production inspection teams will conduct annual inspections in 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, and the market expected stricter coking coal production safety. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the terminal inventory rose. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly month - on - month, the production - end inventory decreased slightly, and the suspended coking coal mines continued to resume production. However, the possibility of further large - scale capacity release was low under the background of over - production inspections. Overall, the carbon supply was sufficient, and the support near the previous low was relatively solid. The coking coal futures price was slightly at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price rebounded under the influence of market sentiment regarding production safety inspections [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. The iron - water production remained high on the demand side. The weekly output of silicomanganese continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level, and the inventory did not increase. The market's spot and futures demand was good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the futures market. Although the manganese ore inventory increased, the inventory - building speed was slow. Driven by coking coal, it may have a certain rebound market [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. The iron - water production remained high on the demand side. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact being small. The output of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The overall demand was okay. The ferrosilicon supply returned to a high level, the market's spot and futures demand was good, and the on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly. Driven by coking coal, it may have a certain rebound market [7]
黑色金属日报-20251009
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-09 14:40