国投期货化工日报-20251009

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea, Methanol, Pure Benzene, Styrene, Propylene, Plastic, PVC, Caustic Soda, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Glass, Soda Ash, Bottle Chip: Investment ratings are provided with star symbols, where red stars represent a predicted upward trend and green stars represent a predicted downward trend. One star means a bias towards long/short with a driving force for an upward/downward trend but limited operability on the trading floor. Two stars mean holding long/short with a clearer upward/downward trend and the market condition is evolving. Three stars mean an even clearer long/short trend and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities. White stars mean the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1][9] Core Views - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sub - sectors. Some products are affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalances, seasonal changes, and raw material price fluctuations [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the futures and spot markets and an expansion of the basis. - For polyolefins, the peak season demand was weak, with mainly rigid demand procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity on the supply side led to a significant increase in domestic production this year, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. Production enterprises accumulated inventory during the double festivals, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holiday, causing prices to be under pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price fell. The pure benzene futures price once dropped below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded following the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and the listed price of Sinopec remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, the port inventory decreased, the actual fundamentals were okay, but the basis weakened compared to before the holiday. High import volume and the expectation of future demand decline continued to drag down the market. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower within the day, and the overall center of gravity moved down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price first decreased and then increased during the holiday, remaining basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost side of styrene. On the supply - demand fundamentals, the peak season demand was weak. Due to the expansion of production capacity, the domestic supply increased significantly. The total inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year, showing a trend of oscillatory inventory accumulation after June. The supply - side pressure was large, suppressing the styrene price, and the styrene market was in a bearish pattern [3] Polyester - The overseas oil price fell during the holiday. The prices of PX and PTA weakened in the morning session and then rebounded in the afternoon due to the oil price recovery. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and the East China device reduced its load due to an accident. In the short term, PX was expected to be under pressure, and the PTA segment repaired its profit. However, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical was planned for maintenance, and the polyester load was expected to be maintained. The short - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials was okay. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand was expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation would still be under pressure in the long run. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday. The fundamentals were weak, and the main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark within the day. In the medium term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation would gradually weaken in the fourth quarter. Under the expectation of inventory accumulation, the 1 - 5 spread was under pressure to decline. - The new production capacity of short fiber was limited, and the operation rate was at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates. The recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It was recommended to continue to be long in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory. The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, as the weather turned cooler, the demand was expected to weaken. Overcapacity was a long - term pressure, and the processing margin was continuously under pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises made large - scale external purchases, and enterprises had sufficient orders to be delivered, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. The import was expected to remain sufficient, the port was expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the short - term weakness would continue. The long - term outlook was relatively positive. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and changes in overseas devices. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, the supply remained high, and enterprises faced great pressure to sell. Affected by weather and logistics factors, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period might have ended, so the short - term boost to the market was limited. The domestic supply - demand situation of urea remained loose. Attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was low, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation pattern. The integrated chlor - alkali enterprises still had profits, but the cost support was not obvious. In a weak real - situation pattern, PVC might show a weak - oscillatory trend. - The caustic soda futures price dropped significantly. There were still vehicle - waiting phenomena among downstream buyers, and the purchase price might be further reduced. The inventory increased compared to the previous period. There were maintenance plans for caustic soda in North and East China in October, but the scale was small. Since there were still profits, the supply was still operating at a high level. The liquid caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan was high, and the downstream profit margin shrank. They were resistant to high - priced products. The weak real - situation pattern continued, but there might be restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production. Since the strong - expectation could not be falsified, it was recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash futures price was in a weak state. The inventory decreased before the holiday and increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry increased after a decrease. It was expected that the ignition speed would slow down in the future, and the incremental rigid demand for heavy soda was limited. There were few maintenance plans in October, the industry's current operating pressure was not large, and the supply would operate at a high level. The long - term supply - demand surplus situation remained unchanged. Opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but be cautious when approaching the cost level. - The glass futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient. The industry seasonally accumulated inventory, and some regions increased their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some project orders increased. Whether Shajiahe would intensively use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously monitored. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to the weak - real - situation trading. However, with the current low valuation, the expected decline range is also limited. In the future, a low - buying strategy near the cost level can be considered [8]