超长信用债探微跟踪：超长债利差触及新高

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spread of ultra-long bonds has reached a new high. The yield center of ultra-long credit bonds has continued to rise, the primary issuance has stopped, and the secondary market has shown weak performance. Due to the lack of incremental capital support, the duration strategy still needs to be cautious before the market sentiment significantly recovers [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Stock Market Characteristics - The yield center of ultra-long credit bonds has continued to rise. During the week of September 29 - September 30, 2025, the bond market sentiment remained weak, and the interest rate center of stock ultra-long credit bonds further increased. Compared with the previous week, the number of stock ultra-long credit bonds with a yield of 2.6% - 2.7% increased to 248 [2][11][12] 2. Primary Issuance Situation - There was no issuance of ultra-long credit bonds in the week before the National Day [3][20] 3. Secondary Trading Performance - The decline of the ultra-long credit bond index was greater than that of other mainstream bond varieties. This week, the index prices of medium - short - term credit bonds and bank sub - debt showed signs of stabilization, but the ultra-long credit bond index still led the decline. The index of AA + credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years decreased by 0.24% month - on - month [4][21] - The liquidity of ultra-long credit bonds was under pressure. Within two trading days this week, the total number of transactions of general credit bonds with a maturity of over 7 years was 62, and the trend of weakening liquidity continued. In terms of long - bond pricing, the yield and spread of ultra-long credit bonds both increased in the latest week. The increase in the transaction yield of general credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years was at the forefront, and the spread with 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds widened to over 50bp [4][24] - The trading sentiment of ultra-long credit bonds was weak. The TKN ratio of varieties with a maturity of over 10 years was at a low level, and the deviation of high - valuation transactions was much higher than that of long - term bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years [4][28] - In terms of the investor structure, funds continued to sell ultra-long credit bonds. Concerns about controlling duration risk and the liquidity flaws of the varieties still affected the allocation behavior of trading desks. The purchasing power of institutions such as insurance and wealth management was limited, and the allocation desks had not formed effective support. It was difficult to reverse the adjustment trend of ultra-long credit bonds in the short term [4][32] - From a more microscopic perspective, the spread between active ultra-long credit bonds of each maturity and treasury bonds of similar maturities rose to a 24 - year high this week, and the spread of varieties around 10 years widened to a new high this year. Looking forward, although the coupon advantage of ultra-long credit bonds is apparent after the adjustment, due to the lack of incremental capital support, the duration strategy still needs to be cautious before the market sentiment significantly recovers [4][34]