能源日报-20251009

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way, represented by "ななな" - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way, represented by "文文文" - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Report's Core View - Overall, the energy market is affected by multiple factors including supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical risks, and inventory changes. Different energy products have their own unique supply - demand situations and price trends [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - International oil prices declined around the National Day holiday and are in a rebound - repair period after OPEC+ did not significantly increase production as expected. The SC11 contract dropped 1.98% on the first trading day after the holiday. US crude oil inventories increased by 3715000 barrels last week, but the 1.7% year - on - year increase in refined oil apparent demand in the past four weeks supported oil prices. Supply - demand loosening pressure is the main trading theme, and the previously proposed strategy of combining short positions in SC at high levels with out - of - the - money call options should be opportunistically and temporarily closed for profit [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - During the National Day holiday, overseas crude - related products were weak, and the fuel oil market opened lower following the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil was relatively resistant to decline due to geopolitical risks, as Russian refineries were frequently attacked by drones and seasonal maintenance was approaching, which may restrict supply. In the medium term, supply pressure may emerge under OPEC+ continuous production increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient overseas supply, with continuous inflow of Western arbitrage goods. The RFCC unit of a Nigerian refinery is not restored, and there are continuous tenders. The demand for marine fuel bunkering is also sluggish, and the supply - demand loosening pressure remains unchanged [3] Asphalt - The latest inventory shows a slight increase in refinery inventory and a significant decline in social inventory, with overall commercial inventory decreasing compared to before the holiday. The national production plan for October increased by 350000 tons year - on - year and decreased slightly by 4000 tons month - on - month. The market has priced in the supply pressure in October. There is still construction rush demand in the north, while demand in the south is temporarily suppressed by typhoon and rainfall. Supply - demand remains in a tight balance, and asphalt is expected to be less pressured under the weakening cost side, with upward elasticity in cracking [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Overseas crude oil prices dropped during the holiday, and the Saudi CP price in October was much lower than expected, with propane down by 25 dollars per ton and butane down by 15 dollars per ton. Affected by the decline in import costs, market sentiment is cautious. Downstream enterprises' procurement after the holiday is mainly for刚需. Attention should be paid to the improvement degree of combustion demand after the temperature drops. In the short term, LPG is under pressure due to lack of positive support [5]