Report Overview - Report Date: October 9, 2025 - Report Type: Daily Morning Observation of Non - ferrous and Precious Metals - Report Sector: Non - ferrous metals and precious metals 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical reasoning, and provides trading strategies for various non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Overall, the precious metals market is in an upward trend, while different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and challenges, such as supply shortages, demand fluctuations, and policy impacts [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Metal Type Precious Metals - Market Review: London gold broke through the $4000/oz mark, closing up 1.4% at $4040.745/oz; London silver rose 2.36% to $48.88/oz. The US dollar index rose 0.15% to 98.767, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield weakened to 4.11% [2]. - Important Information: The US Senate rejected the bipartisan appropriation bill, the Fed is divided on interest rate cuts, and the probability of interest rate cuts is high. Trump announced a peace plan between Israel and Hamas [2]. - Logic Analysis: Uncertainties such as the US government shutdown, global political turmoil, and China's increase in gold reserves have increased investors' demand for gold as a hedge, pushing up gold prices. Silver prices have also risen due to expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for opportunities to go long on the dips for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage; take profit on out - of - the - money call options and collar call options bought before the holiday [4]. Copper - Market Review: LME copper closed at $10701/ton, down 0.23%. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 139,200 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1947 tons to 335,500 tons [6]. - Important Information: The US government shutdown continued, QB mine cut copper production guidance, Aurubis raised the price of refined copper, and Australia provided financial support to copper smelters [6][7]. - Logic Analysis: Copper mine supply is tight, and the transfer from the mine end to the smelting end may be faster. Consumption is weak, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - sided trading; hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decreases; wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - Market Review: The alumina 2601 contract fell to 2868 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a narrow - range decline [10][11]. - Important Information: Overseas alumina was traded at different prices, Inalum planned to expand production, and the supply of alumina was estimated to be in surplus in September [11][12]. - Logic Analysis: Alumina supply is in an excess pattern, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating pattern before large - scale production cuts [13]. - Trading Strategy: Expect alumina to maintain a weak trend for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20160 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [16]. - Important Information: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and most aluminum die - casting enterprises extended their holidays [16]. - Logic Analysis: The demand for raw material inventory in recycled aluminum plants is restricted, and the holiday of downstream die - casting enterprises is extended. The spot price is expected to be firm, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of cash - and - carry arbitrage [16]. - Trading Strategy: Expect the aluminum alloy futures price to open higher and then weaken slightly for single - sided trading; pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage if the futures price opens higher; wait and see for options [17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The SHFE aluminum 2511 contract fell to 20680 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum price rose 3.22% during the holiday. The spot price increased [20]. - Important Information: The US government shutdown and the Fed's internal differences in interest rate cuts. The domestic aluminum rod production capacity expanded, and some enterprises increased production during the holiday [20][21]. - Logic Analysis: Affected by interest rate cut expectations and the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector, the LME aluminum price rose during the holiday. The domestic demand is slowly recovering, and there may be short - term inventory accumulation after the holiday [21][22]. - Trading Strategy: Be cautious about chasing high prices and wait and see for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [23]. Zinc - Market Review: The LME zinc price fell 1.53% to $2995/ton, and the spot price was stable. The LME zinc inventory decreased [25][26]. - Important Information: Kipushi mine increased production, Golden Grove mine postponed high - grade zinc ore mining, and the LME zinc inventory decreased [25][26]. - Logic Analysis: The non - ferrous metal sector was strong during the holiday, and the LME zinc inventory decreased to a two - year low. The domestic market is in surplus, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic is expected to continue [26][28]. - Trading Strategy: Expect the SHFE zinc price to be strong in the short term and go short on the high for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [28]. Lead - Market Review: The LME lead price fell 0.02% to $2005.5/ton, and the spot price was stable. The LME lead inventory was high [30]. - Important Information: A lead - zinc mine in Fujian postponed production [30]. - Logic Analysis: The demand for lead concentrate is large, and the supply is in a tight balance. The primary lead smelter is in a small loss, and the secondary lead smelter may increase production. The consumption season is not as expected [32]. - Trading Strategy: Expect the lead price to fall; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [33]. Nickel - Market Review: The LME nickel price fell to $15390/ton, and the inventory increased. The spot premium decreased [34]. - Important Information: Global nickel demand and production are expected to increase in 2026, and Indonesia adjusted the RKAB approval system [34][36]. - Logic Analysis: The global primary nickel supply is expected to be in excess, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [36]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for options [37]. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The stainless steel SS2511 contract closed at 12730 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [39]. - Important Information: The EU tightened steel import policies, and a South Korean buyer cancelled an order from a Taiwanese supplier [40]. - Logic Analysis: The terminal demand for stainless steel is differentiated, and the supply is high. Without production - capacity reduction policies, the trend is weak [42]. - Trading Strategy: Expect a weak oscillation for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage [42]. Industrial Silicon - Market Review: The industrial silicon futures price fell before the holiday, and the spot price was at a premium [44][45]. - Important Information: Industrial silicon exports increased in August, and imports decreased [45]. - Logic Analysis: The output increased, and the demand was strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on the dips [45]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on the dips for single - sided trading; buy out - of - the - money put options for options; no strategy for arbitrage [46]. Polysilicon - Market Review: The polysilicon futures price oscillated narrowly before the holiday, and the spot price was stable [48]. - Important Information: India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese polysilicon products [48]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is expected to increase in October, demand is weakening, and there may be a callback in November. It is recommended to buy on the dips after the callback [48]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on the dips after a full callback for single - sided trading; conduct reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts for arbitrage; buy deep out - of - the - money call and put options for options [49]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract closed at 72800 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [52]. - Important Information: Chile's lithium exports increased in September, the US terminated energy projects, and a Chinese research team made a breakthrough in solid - state lithium batteries [53]. - Logic Analysis: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are tight in October and may return to balance in November. October may be a turning point [54]. - Trading Strategy: Expect a wide - range oscillation for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [56]. Tin - Market Review: The LME tin price fell to $36250/ton, and the spot price rose. The LME tin inventory increased [57][58]. - Important Information: The US government shutdown continued, and the global AI infrastructure expenditure is expected to reach $2 trillion in 2026 [57][58]. - Logic Analysis: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - Trading Strategy: Expect a short - term weak oscillation and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar for single - sided trading; wait and see for options [58][61].
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20251009
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-09 14:51