国投期货软商品日报-20251009

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish/bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term bullish/bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the trading floor, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Logs: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - Cotton & Cotton Yarn: Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. Xinjiang cotton purchase price fluctuated during the National Day. Pure cotton yarn prices were stable but weak. The new year has a strong production increase expectation, supply may increase significantly, and demand remains weak. It's advisable to wait and see [2] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production data is bearish, and domestic sugar is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The market focus is on the next season's production estimate, and the production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3] - Apple: The futures price rose and then fell. The listing and sales of new - season Red Fuji were affected by rain. The supply lacks bullish drivers, and the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, so a bearish strategy is maintained [4] - 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber: During the National Day, international rubber futures prices fluctuated, and today's prices rose. Supply pressure is high, demand declined during the holiday, inventory reduction is difficult, and the strategy is to rebound due to the end of risk - aversion sentiment [6] - Pulp: The pulp futures price continued to fall to a new low. The inventory decreased slightly, but the supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. It's advisable to wait and see [7] - Logs: The futures price fluctuated. The supply is expected to remain low, demand in the peak season is emerging, inventory pressure is small, and a bullish strategy is maintained [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded, and new cotton's fixed - price quotes decreased compared to before the holiday [2] - Xinjiang cotton purchase price first fell and then rose during the National Day, with normal - moisture purchase prices mostly in the 6 - 6.2 yuan/kg range [2] - Pure cotton yarn prices were stable but weak, and the peak - season performance was not strong [2] - Since mid - September, the continuous decline of Zhengzhou cotton has had a negative impact on cotton purchase prices, and ginners are cautious in purchasing [2] - The new year has a strong production increase expectation, supply may increase significantly, and demand remains weak [2] - Macroscopically, pay attention to the China - US negotiation at the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October [2] - It's advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - During the holiday, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian sugar production data in the first half of September was bearish, with increased cane crushing and sugar production [3] - Although this year's cane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increased sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss in sugar production, and Brazil's sugar production will remain high [3] - Domestic Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile. The sales rhythm this year was fast, and the spot pressure was relatively light [3] - The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate [3] - After July, rainfall in Guangxi was good, and the sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3] - Sugar prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [3] Apple - The futures price rose and then fell [4] - The new - season Red Fuji's listing was delayed due to rain in the production area, and the sales speed slowed down [4] - The spot market had high expectations for the opening price of early - maturing apples [4] - The apple production in the 25/26 season is expected to change little year - on - year, and the supply lacks bullish drivers [4] - In Shaanxi, farmers are bullish, and the reserved fruit volume increased. The cold - storage inventory of new - season Red Fuji may be higher than expected [4] - A bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - During the National Day, Singapore and Japanese rubber futures prices fluctuated sharply, and international crude oil futures prices first fell and then rose [6] - Today, RU&NR&BR prices rose, and market sentiment improved [6] - Domestic natural and synthetic rubber prices generally rose, and the port price of butadiene overseas was stable [6] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period [6] - Before the holiday, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline significantly, with some plants shutting down for maintenance and some restarting [6] - The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased [6] - During the National Day, tire enterprises had holidays, and the domestic tire operating rate decreased [6] - Before the holiday, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 45.65 tons, with a slight decrease in bonded - area inventory and a large decrease in general - trade inventory [6] - The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber continued to fall to 1.22 tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory in China rose to 2.78 tons [6] - During the National Day, demand decreased, supply pressure was high, inventory reduction was difficult, and geopolitical risks decreased. The strategy is to rebound due to the end of risk - aversion sentiment [6] Pulp - The pulp futures price continued to fall to a new low [7] - As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports decreased by 7.9 tons to 203.3 tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease [7] - The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian needles still suppress the near - term contracts [7] - The current import inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, and the pulp supply is relatively loose [7] - Pulp demand is still average, and downstream paper mills continue to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies [7] - It's advisable to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated, and the spot price was stable [8] - The arrival volume before the holiday increased, and the price of New Zealand radiata pine in October was raised [8] - The domestic spot price was weak, and traders' import willingness decreased [8] - The overseas price was still high, and the domestic spot price was difficult to improve, increasing traders' pressure [8] - The domestic supply is expected to remain low in the short term [8] - The port inventory reduction before the holiday was significant, and the peak - season demand emerged, with smooth inventory reduction [8] - The original inventory was low, and inventory pressure was relatively small [8] - A bullish strategy is maintained [8]