“十五五”专题研究系列之二：我国经济社会发展内外部环境条件八大趋势（下）

Group 1: Economic Development Trends - China is in a critical period of transitioning from old to new growth drivers, with a focus on developing new productivity to stimulate economic growth and high-quality development[5] - By the end of 2024, China's global innovation index ranking is expected to rise to 11th, up from 34th in 2012, making it the only middle-income economy in the top 30[6] - The manufacturing sector is projected to maintain a stable GDP share of 24.9% in 2024, reflecting a trend seen in other industrialized nations[13] Group 2: Technological Innovation - R&D expenditure in China accounted for approximately 20.1% of global R&D spending in 2022, maintaining its position as the second-largest contributor worldwide[9] - The average annual growth rate of R&D investment is expected to exceed 10.3% from 2021 to 2024, with the R&D intensity reaching 2.68% in 2024, up from 2.4% in 2020[7] - The focus of innovation policy is shifting towards encouraging original innovation, particularly in foundational research, to enhance technological self-reliance[12] Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The annual sales area of commercial housing is expected to decline to around 700-800 million square meters, which is less than half of the average during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period[26] - Urban renewal is anticipated to become a new growth point in the real estate market, with significant opportunities arising from the transformation of old neighborhoods and infrastructure improvements[31] - The market is expected to see a structural shift, with a growing preference for larger, improved housing options over smaller, entry-level units[28] Group 4: Demographic Changes - By 2024, the population aged 65 and older is projected to reach 220 million, accounting for 15.6% of the total population, indicating a shift towards a moderately aging society[40] - The total fertility rate in China has dropped to 1.05 in 2024, below the critical threshold of 1.5, highlighting the challenges posed by declining birth rates[41] - The labor force participation rate is expected to remain high, with a projected increase in the average years of education for the labor force from 11.3 years to 12 years by 2035[46]