Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The commodity market as a whole moved upward this week, with the commodity index rising 0.43%. By sector, the precious metals index rose 4.48%, the non-ferrous metals index rose 0.73%, the energy and chemical index fell 0.06%, the industrial products index fell 0.10%, the agricultural products index fell 1.23%, and the black index fell 1.95%. By variety, the crude oil index rose 0.89% and the gold index rose 3.07% [2][6]. - All CTA strategies posted small profits this week. The China Merchants Futures CTA short - to medium - term strategy index rose 0.06%, with 73% of products in the pool rising. The China Merchants Futures CTA medium - to long - term strategy index rose 0.36%, with 68% of products in the pool rising. The China Merchants Futures CTA quantitative arbitrage strategy index rose 0.09%, with 58% of products in the pool rising. The China Merchants Futures CTA short - to medium - term time - series price - volume strategy index rose 0.09%, while the China Merchants Futures CTA medium - to long - term time - series price - volume strategy index fell 0.24% [2]. - It is recommended to gradually increase CTA allocation, mainly focusing on trend strategies. Currently, the profits of most commodities are at relatively low levels in reality. In terms of expectations, the price level has basically bottomed out, and policy support and demand recovery will continue to boost inflation. Globally, fiscal and monetary policies are gradually entering a synchronous expansion cycle. Therefore, the long - term trend of the commodity market is gradually taking shape, volatility is expected to gradually increase, and the profit expectation of CTA is gradually strengthening [2]. - The short - to medium - term strategy environment is moderately favorable. Intraday liquidity has continued to recover, with a historical quantile of around 0.7; intraday volatility has remained high, with a historical quantile of around 0.9; and trend smoothness has slightly improved, with a historical quantile of around 0.7. The medium - to long - term strategy environment is neutral. The inter - day trend smoothness has continued to recover, with the variety trend smoothness around 0.8 and the proportion of varieties with smooth trends around 0.7; the inter - day volatility has slightly recovered from the bottom, with the variety volatility around 0.0 and the proportion of high - volatility varieties around 0.2 [2]. - Most mainstream style factors posted losses this week. The contribution at the sector level was dispersed, with precious metals contributing positive returns and energy and chemicals mostly contributing negative returns. At the variety level, the contribution was also dispersed, with no concentration of returns in specific varieties. The volatility of most mainstream factors declined, but most historical quantiles were in the range of 0.1 - 0.9 [2]. Summary by Catalog 01 Market行情回顾 - Index performance: The commodity market mostly rose, with the commodity index up 0.43%. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals indices increased, while the energy and chemical, industrial products, agricultural products, and black indices decreased. Among stock index futures, the IC, IF, and IH indices rose, and the IM index fell. Treasury bond indices generally declined. For CTA style factors, the 20 - day time - series momentum and long - short 50% roll - over factors performed best, while the 20 - day cross - sectional momentum and 5 - day time - series momentum factors performed worst [6]. - Commodity market: The net value of most commodity sector indices declined, and most volatilities increased. The trading volume and open interest of the commodity futures market were in the normal range. As of September 26, 2025, the average trading volume of commodity futures was 1.97 trillion yuan (an increase of 0.11 trillion yuan week - on - week), the average open interest was 2.39 trillion yuan, and the average trading volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.83, at the 37.54% level of the past three years [8][12]. - Stock index futures market: Most stock index futures indices rose, and half of the volatilities increased. The trading volume and open interest were in a relatively high range. As of September 26, 2025, the average trading volume of stock index futures was 0.82 trillion yuan (a decrease of 0.16 trillion yuan week - on - week), the average open interest was 1.33 trillion yuan (a decrease of 0.04 trillion yuan week - on - week), and the average trading volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.61, at the 82.09% level of the past three years [16][20]. - Treasury bond futures market: The net value of treasury bond futures indices generally declined, and most volatilities decreased. The trading volume and open interest were in the normal range. As of September 26, 2025, the average trading volume of treasury bond futures was 0.43 trillion yuan (a decrease of 0.04 trillion yuan week - on - week), the average open interest was 0.77 trillion yuan (an increase of 0.01 trillion yuan week - on - week), and the average trading volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.56, at the 67.70% level of the past three years [23][27]. - CTA strategy tracking: More than 50% of quantitative CTA strategies had positive returns this week. All types of CTA strategies posted small profits. For example, the China Merchants Futures CTA short - to medium - term strategy index rose 0.06%, and the medium - to long - term strategy index rose 0.36% [28][38]. 02 Strategy Market Environment - Short - to medium - term strategy environment: Intraday liquidity continued to recover, and volatility remained high. The historical quantile of intraday liquidity was around 0.7, and that of intraday volatility was around 0.9 [2]. - Medium - to long - term strategy environment: The trend smoothness continued to recover, and the volatility recovered from the bottom. The variety trend smoothness was around 0.8, the proportion of varieties with smooth trends was around 0.7, the variety volatility was around 0.0, and the proportion of high - volatility varieties was around 0.2 [2]. 03 CTA Style Factors - Factor returns: Most mainstream factors posted losses. For example, the 5 - day time - series momentum factor fell 0.59%, and the 20 - day cross - sectional momentum factor fell 0.40% [54]. - Return contribution: At the sector level, precious metals contributed positive returns, and energy and chemicals mostly contributed negative returns. At the variety level, the contribution was dispersed. For example, for the 5 - day time - series momentum factor, silver, polycrystalline silicon, and coking coal were among the top contributors, while glass, container shipping index, and crude oil were among the bottom contributors [55][57]. - Factor correlation: The correlation matrix shows the relationships between different factors. For example, the correlation between the 5 - day time - series momentum and 5 - day cross - sectional momentum factors was 0.851 [71]. 04 CTA Risk Monitoring - Risk factor exposure: CTA time - series price - volume had a large exposure to the 20 - day time - series momentum factor, CTA cross - sectional long - short also had a large exposure to the 20 - day time - series momentum factor, and CTA mixed time - series cross - sectional had a small exposure to style factors [74]. - Return decomposition: For the CTA time - series price - volume strategy, the total return since the beginning of the year was 7.26%, with a purified alpha return of 7.17% and a style factor beta return of 0.09%. For the CTA cross - sectional long - short strategy, the total return was 1.43%, with a purified alpha return of - 1.71% and a style factor beta return of 3.14%. For the CTA mixed time - series cross - sectional strategy, the total return was 5.54%, with a purified alpha return of 3.18% and a style factor beta return of 2.36% [75].
招商期货CTA市场跟踪周报：CTA各策略小幅盈利，逐步增配-20251009
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-10-09 15:11