中信期货晨报：能源化工多数下跌，股指延续升势-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan is likely to have its first female prime minister. A shutdown over 15 days may affect the release of important economic data. If Koike Sanae is elected, it may impact Sino - Japanese relations and market risk preference [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economy continues to stabilize. The manufacturing PMI is 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The non - manufacturing PMI drops 0.3 points to 50.0. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active [7]. - Asset view: In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's October rate cut and the BoJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. In the fourth quarter, maintain the asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - Stock Index Futures: All major stock index futures showed gains. The CSI 300 futures had a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date increase of 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, and 19.59% respectively. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had positive performances [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Most treasury bond futures had small increases, except for the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a year - to - date decline of 0.56% [3]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index was flat on the day, with different trends in other currency pairs. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged on the day, while the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate had a weekly increase of 3.52% [3]. - Interest Rates: Some interest rates had minor changes, such as the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield decreasing by 2.7 bp [3]. 3.2 Hot Industries - Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals had positive daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date performances. For example, the non - ferrous metals index had a year - to - date increase of 33.42% [3]. - Some industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and defense and military had mixed performances, with some showing daily declines but positive long - term trends [3]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - Energy: Crude oil futures (NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent) had small daily increases but year - to - date declines. Natural gas prices were mostly down, with NYMEX natural gas having a daily decline of 5.14% [3]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver had significant year - to - date increases, with COMEX gold up 53.85% year - to - date [3]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Most non - ferrous metals showed positive long - term trends, but some had daily fluctuations [3]. - Agricultural Products: Agricultural products had diverse performances. For example, CBOT soybeans had a year - to - date increase of 1.96%, while ICE 2 - cotton had a year - to - date decline of 5.03% [3]. 3.4 Other Commodities - Shipping: The container shipping route to Europe had a significant daily decline of 50.38% [4]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver continued to show positive trends, with silver having a year - to - date increase of 49.52% [4]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Copper, tin, and other metals had positive price movements, while some like alumina had a weak fundamental situation [4]. - Black Building Materials: Most black building materials showed a mixed performance, with some like iron ore having a positive year - to - date performance and others like silicon iron having a decline [4]. - Energy and Chemicals: Crude oil had a year - to - date decline of 15.88%. Most chemical products showed a trend of price fluctuations and were in a state of supply - demand adjustment [4]. - Agricultural Products: Some agricultural products like soybeans and peanuts had different price trends, with peanuts having a year - to - date decline of 2.83% [4]. 3.5 Market Outlook by Sector - Financial: Stock markets had a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures were expected to rise in a volatile manner, while bond futures were expected to be volatile [8]. - Precious Metals: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver were expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - Shipping: Attention was paid to the rate of freight price decline, and the container shipping route to Europe was expected to be volatile [8]. - Black Building Materials: A negative feedback was difficult to form, and the sector was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [8]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Supply disruptions continued to ferment, and most metals were expected to be volatile, with some like copper expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - Energy and Chemicals: The crude oil market continued to be volatile, and the chemical market was mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [10]. - Agriculture: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, oilseeds and meal were hit. Most agricultural products were expected to be volatile [10].