软商品日报：美元走强打压下，棉花短暂调整-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The price of cotton has bottom - support as the commercial inventory is decreasing and the peak season for cotton textile is coming. The strategy suggestion is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5,800.0 yuan, in Kunming is 5,820.0 yuan, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 14,850.0 yuan [1] Disk Surface - The closing price of US sugar is 16.25, with a change of - 0.43%. The closing price of US cotton is 64.46, with a change of - 0.74% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanded price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin cotton areas was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at a high risk of heat damage. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is coming, so the cotton price has bottom - support [1] Inventory Warrants - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warrants is 8,898.0, with a change of - 0.78%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warrants is 3,030.0, with a change of - 1.66% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: The growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is generally good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected, which delays the sugar factory's startup time. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is lowered. The overall growth of cotton is better than last year, and the demand for cotton is expected to recover during the traditional peak season, so the price has the impetus to rise [3] Data Quick View - Outer - Market Quotes: The price of US sugar decreased from 16.32 to 16.25, a change of - 0.43%. The price of US cotton decreased from 64.94 to 64.46, a change of - 0.74% [4] - Spot Prices: The price of sugar in Nanning increased from 5,780.0 to 5,800.0, a change of 0.35%. The price of sugar in Kunming increased from 5,810.0 to 5,820.0, a change of 0.17%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a change of - 0.14%. The price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 14,950.0 to 14,850.0, a change of - 0.67% [4] - Price Difference Quick View: Different sugar and cotton contract price differences and basis have different degrees of change [4] - Import Prices: The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 76.05, a change of 0.00% [4] - Profit Space: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,456.0, a change of 0.00% [4] - Options: Different sugar and cotton option contracts have different implied volatilities and historical volatilities [4] - Inventory Warrants: The number of sugar warrants decreased from 8,968.0 to 8,898.0, a change of - 0.78%. The number of cotton warrants decreased from 3,081.0 to 3,030.0, a change of - 1.66% [4]