宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251010

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term price trends of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures are all expected to be oscillating on the strong side, while the medium - term trends are all expected to be oscillating [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - View: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating on the strong side; Reference view: oscillating on the strong side [5][6] - Core Logic: The suspension of the US agricultural report due to the government shutdown weakens the influence of US soybean futures on the domestic market. The domestic market has a pattern of "high inventory, weak consumption", but downstream players are optimistic about medium - term price recovery and are actively locking in costs for far - month contracts. Soybean prices are approaching the cost line, and oil mills are suffering losses and are strongly motivated to support prices [5]. Soybean Oil (Y) - View: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating on the strong side; Reference view: oscillating on the strong side [7][6] - Core Logic: The US government shutdown causes a lack of key data, making it difficult to assess the US soybean oil supply - demand situation. Brazil may not increase the biodiesel blending ratio in 2026. India's soybean oil imports are expected to reach a three - year high. The international soybean oil price is oscillating on the strong side, and the domestic market is affected by both the international market and domestic soybean costs [7]. Palm Oil (P) - View: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating on the strong side; Reference view: oscillating on the strong side [8][6] - Core Logic: The negative impact of falling international oil prices on biodiesel demand has weakened. The supply - demand environment in the palm oil industry has improved, with production in Southeast Asia declining from the seasonal peak and demand boosted by festivals. Indonesia plans to implement a mandatory B50 biodiesel program, which will reduce palm oil exports. The domestic palm oil futures price has risen following the international market after the holiday, and capital has returned [8].