宝城期货甲醇早报-20251010

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is a decline, and the intraday view is also weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - The short - term view of methanol 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is a decline, and the intraday view is weak and volatile [1][5]. Core Logic - Macro factors have weakened as the US government shutdown due to the two - party deadlock has increased global financial market risk aversion and pressured risk assets [5]. - Domestically, methanol's high operating rate and weekly production, along with increasing external import pressure and a peak in imports this year, have led to high post - holiday port inventories [5]. - Although downstream demand is improving, the poor olefin disk profit means the weak demand situation still needs improvement [5]. - Considering these factors, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to be weak and volatile this Friday [5].